Gela v Licata prediction · Serie D - Girone I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GelaDrawLicata

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gela 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gela are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gela 45%, draw 26%, Licata 28%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Gela v LicataBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Gela win45%

Draw26%

Licata win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gela

Licata

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Licata	8	+2	17
15	Gela	8	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gela winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Gela a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gela v Licata~~1.47 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 17~~15 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gela win	45%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Licata win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Gela or draw	72%	–	–
Gela clean sheet	34%	–	–
Licata clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.4 8.1 4.7 1 10.9 12.3 6.6 2.5 2 8.2 8.7 4.8 3 4.1 4.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gela down, Licata across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,659 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Gela at home: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Licata away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Gela, 1.11 for Licata. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 16 Sept

GELA

LDLDDD1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

LICATA

DWWWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	8	+15	19
2	Sambiase	8	+6	17
3	Licata	8	+2	17
4	Calcio Avola	8	+1	16
5	Vibonese	8	+10	15
6	Igea Virtus	8	+4	14
7	Milazzo	8	−1	13
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	+6	12
9	Nissa	8	−1	9
10	AC Palermo	7	0	8
11	Vigor Lamezia	8	−6	8
12	Siracusa	8	+5	7
13	CastrumFavara	8	−2	7
14	Modica	7	−3	7
15	Gela	8	−2	6
16	Trapani 1905	8	−7	4
17	Ragusa	8	−7	3
18	Enna	8	−20	1