Enna v Igea Virtus prediction · Serie D - Girone I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

EnnaDrawIgea Virtus

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Igea Virtus 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Igea Virtus are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Enna 28%, draw 23%, Igea Virtus 48%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Enna v Igea VirtusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Enna win28%

Draw23%

Igea Virtus win48%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup I · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Enna

Igea Virtus

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Igea Virtus	8	+4	14
18	Enna	8	−20	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · igea virtus winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Igea Virtus a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Enna v Igea Virtus~~1.30 – 1.81

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 14~~18 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Enna win	28%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Igea Virtus win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Enna or draw	52%	–	–
Enna clean sheet	18%	–	–
Igea Virtus clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.3 7.9 7.1 4.3 2.1 1 6.0 10.7 8.9 5.3 2.5 2 4.1 6.7 5.7 3.4 3 2.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Enna down, Igea Virtus across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,659 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Enna at home: 0.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Igea Virtus away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Enna, 1.81 for Igea Virtus. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ENN 1–1 IGE · IGE 2–2 ENN · ENN 2–2 IGE · IGE 0–1 ENN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 16 Sept

ENNA

LDLLLL0–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–3

IGEA VIRTUS

WWLDLW4–3 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	8	+15	19
2	Sambiase	8	+6	17
3	Licata	8	+2	17
4	Calcio Avola	8	+1	16
5	Vibonese	8	+10	15
6	Igea Virtus	8	+4	14
7	Milazzo	8	−1	13
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	+6	12
9	Nissa	8	−1	9
10	AC Palermo	7	0	8
11	Vigor Lamezia	8	−6	8
12	Siracusa	8	+5	7
13	CastrumFavara	8	−2	7
14	Modica	7	−3	7
15	Gela	8	−2	6
16	Trapani 1905	8	−7	4
17	Ragusa	8	−7	3
18	Enna	8	−20	1