Digiesse PraiaTortora v Vigor Lamezia prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Digiesse PraiaTortoraDrawVigor Lamezia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Digiesse PraiaTortora 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Digiesse PraiaTortora are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Digiesse PraiaTortora 54%, draw 24%, Vigor Lamezia 22%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Digiesse PraiaTortora v Vigor LameziaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Digiesse PraiaTortora win54%

Draw24%

Vigor Lamezia win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup I · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Digiesse PraiaTortora

Vigor Lamezia

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	+6	12
11	Vigor Lamezia	8	−6	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · digiesse praiatortora winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Digiesse PraiaTortora a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Digiesse PraiaTortora v Vigor Lamezia~~1.79 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 8~~8 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Digiesse PraiaTortora win	54%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Vigor Lamezia win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Digiesse PraiaTortora or draw	78%	–	–
Digiesse PraiaTortora clean sheet	36%	–	–
Vigor Lamezia clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.6 6.1 3.4 1 10.3 11.1 5.6 2.0 2 9.2 9.3 4.9 3 5.5 5.6 2.9 4 2.5 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Digiesse PraiaTortora down, Vigor Lamezia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,659 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Digiesse PraiaTortora at home: 1.75 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 4). Vigor Lamezia away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Digiesse PraiaTortora, 1.06 for Vigor Lamezia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 16 Sept

DIGIESSE PRAIATORTORA

DDWLWL1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 5–1 · 1–3

VIGOR LAMEZIA

DLLWLW1–1 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	8	+15	19
2	Sambiase	8	+6	17
3	Licata	8	+2	17
4	Calcio Avola	8	+1	16
5	Vibonese	8	+10	15
6	Igea Virtus	8	+4	14
7	Milazzo	8	−1	13
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	+6	12
9	Nissa	8	−1	9
10	AC Palermo	7	0	8
11	Vigor Lamezia	8	−6	8
12	Siracusa	8	+5	7
13	CastrumFavara	8	−2	7
14	Modica	7	−3	7
15	Gela	8	−2	6
16	Trapani 1905	8	−7	4
17	Ragusa	8	−7	3
18	Enna	8	−20	1