CastrumFavara v Reggina prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CastrumFavaraDrawReggina

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Reggina 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Reggina are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CastrumFavara 19%, draw 28%, Reggina 53%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on CastrumFavara v RegginaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

CastrumFavara win19%

Draw28%

Reggina win53%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup I · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CastrumFavara

Reggina

10Days since last match10

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone I

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · reggina winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Reggina a 53% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CastrumFavara v Reggina~~0.74 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 19~~13 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CastrumFavara win	19%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Reggina win	53%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
CastrumFavara or draw	47%	–	–
CastrumFavara clean sheet	25%	–	–
Reggina clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.9%

0123450 12.2 15.9 11.5 5.6 2.2 1 8.2 12.0 8.2 4.0 2 3.2 4.4 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CastrumFavara down, Reggina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,659 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CastrumFavara at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Reggina away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.74 goals for CastrumFavara, 1.44 for Reggina. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~REG 2–0 CAS · CAS 2–1 REG · REG 3–1 CAS · CAS 1–3 REG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 16 Sept

CASTRUMFAVARA

DLLLWL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 0–1

REGGINA

WWWLDW4–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	8	+15	19
2	Sambiase	8	+6	17
3	Licata	8	+2	17
4	Calcio Avola	8	+1	16
5	Vibonese	8	+10	15
6	Igea Virtus	8	+4	14
7	Milazzo	8	−1	13
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	+6	12
9	Nissa	8	−1	9
10	AC Palermo	7	0	8
11	Vigor Lamezia	8	−6	8
12	Siracusa	8	+5	7
13	CastrumFavara	8	−2	7
14	Modica	7	−3	7
15	Gela	8	−2	6
16	Trapani 1905	8	−7	4
17	Ragusa	8	−7	3
18	Enna	8	−20	1