CastrumFavara v Igea Virtus prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

CastrumFavara 3–2 Igea Virtus IGEA VIRTUS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Igea Virtus win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.641

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Igea Virtus win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Igea Virtus 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
3′Little has changed for our model: Igea Virtus 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
40′CastrumFavara find the net on 38′. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–37–33
42′A goal for CastrumFavara on 41′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 67–23–10
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Igea Virtus win: 39% at kick-off, 33% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Igea Virtus win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' CastrumFavara win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Igea Virtus win 10%)
46′SECOND HALF CastrumFavara 2–1 Igea Virtus
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' CastrumFavara 3–1 Igea Virtus
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' CastrumFavara 3–2 Igea Virtus
64′🟥 RED CARD · 64' Igea Virtus
FTFULL TIME CastrumFavara 3–2 Igea Virtus
FTCastrumFavara 3–2 Igea Virtus · Igea Virtus win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

CastrumFavara win35%

Draw26%

Igea Virtus win39%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

CastrumFavara

Igea Virtus

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Igea Virtus	6	+3	11
16	CastrumFavara	6	−2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · igea virtus winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Igea Virtus a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CastrumFavara win	35%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Igea Virtus win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
CastrumFavara or draw	61%	–	–
CastrumFavara clean sheet	26%	–	–
Igea Virtus clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.5 9.3 6.5 3.1 1 8.8 12.2 8.1 3.8 2 5.8 7.7 5.2 2.5 3 2.6 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CastrumFavara down, Igea Virtus across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,642 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CastrumFavara at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Igea Virtus away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for CastrumFavara, 1.39 for Igea Virtus. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~IGE 3–2 CAS · CAS 0–0 IGE · CAS 1–1 IGE · IGE 2–2 CAS

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I

CASTRUMFAVARA

WLDLLL3–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

IGEA VIRTUS

WDWWLD4–2 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	6	+14	15
2	Vibonese	6	+10	13
3	Sambiase	6	+5	13
4	Calcio Avola	6	−1	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	+3	11
6	Siracusa	6	+3	11
7	Licata	6	0	11
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	+4	9
9	Milazzo	6	−3	9
10	AC Palermo	6	+1	8
11	Nissa	6	0	8
12	Modica	6	+1	7
13	Trapani 1905	6	−7	6
14	Gela	6	−2	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	6	−6	5
16	CastrumFavara	6	−2	4
17	Ragusa	6	−5	2
18	Enna	6	−15	1