AC Palermo v Licata prediction · Serie D - Girone I

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

AC Palermo 1–2 Licata AC PALERMO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AC Palermo win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.055

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AC Palermo win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: AC Palermo was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–19
1′KICK-OFF AC Palermo v Licata
3′Much as we predicted: AC Palermo was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–19
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' AC Palermo 1–0 Licata
18′A goal for AC Palermo on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–13–6
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' AC Palermo win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' AC Palermo win: 60% at kick-off, 61% now
19′A goal for AC Palermo on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–13–6
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' AC Palermo win: 60% at kick-off, 61% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' AC Palermo win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' AC Palermo 1–1 Licata
34′27′ and it is 1–1: Licata have scored. 1–1 · 53–28–19
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' AC Palermo win: 60% at kick-off, 53% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' AC Palermo win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
35′27′ and it is 1–1: Licata have scored. 1–1 · 52–28–19
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' AC Palermo win: 60% at kick-off, 53% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' AC Palermo win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' AC Palermo win: 60% at kick-off, 52% now
45′HALF-TIME AC Palermo 1–1 Licata
45′⚽ GOAL · 12' AC Palermo 1–1 Licata
45′⚽ GOAL · 27' AC Palermo 1–1 Licata
46′SECOND HALF AC Palermo 1–1 Licata
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' AC Palermo 1–2 Licata
FTFULL TIME AC Palermo 1–2 Licata
FTAC Palermo 1–2 Licata · AC Palermo win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

AC Palermo win60%

Draw20%

Licata win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

AC Palermo

Licata

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Licata	6	0	11
10	AC Palermo	6	+1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ac palermo winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

60% The market–

Us60%

We make AC Palermo a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AC Palermo win	60%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Licata win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
AC Palermo or draw	81%	–	–
AC Palermo clean sheet	33%	–	–
Licata clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 4.2 4.2 2.5 1 7.9 9.0 5.0 2 8.5 9.2 5.2 2.1 3 6.1 6.7 3.8 4 3.4 3.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AC Palermo down, Licata across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,642 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

AC Palermo at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Licata away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for AC Palermo, 1.15 for Licata. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I

AC PALERMO

LWDLWD2–4 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 0–0

LICATA

LDDWWW0–5 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	6	+14	15
2	Vibonese	6	+10	13
3	Sambiase	6	+5	13
4	Calcio Avola	6	−1	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	+3	11
6	Siracusa	6	+3	11
7	Licata	6	0	11
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	+4	9
9	Milazzo	6	−3	9
10	AC Palermo	6	+1	8
11	Nissa	6	0	8
12	Modica	6	+1	7
13	Trapani 1905	6	−7	6
14	Gela	6	−2	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	6	−6	5
16	CastrumFavara	6	−2	4
17	Ragusa	6	−5	2
18	Enna	6	−15	1