Virtus Francavilla v Real Forio 2014 prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Virtus Francavilla 2–0 Real Forio 2014 VIRTUS FRANCAVILLA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Virtus Francavilla win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.367

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Virtus Francavilla win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF Virtus Francavilla v Real Forio 2014
2′Much as we predicted: Virtus Francavilla was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
5′Much as we predicted: Virtus Francavilla was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Virtus Francavilla 1–0 Real Forio 2014
39′Virtus Francavilla find the net on 32′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–6
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Virtus Francavilla win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Virtus Francavilla win: 51% at kick-off, 46% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Virtus Francavilla win: 51% at kick-off, 46% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Virtus Francavilla win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Virtus Francavilla win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Virtus Francavilla win: 51% at kick-off, 46% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Virtus Francavilla win: 51% at kick-off, 46% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Virtus Francavilla win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Virtus Francavilla win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Virtus Francavilla win: 51% at kick-off, 46% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Virtus Francavilla win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Virtus Francavilla win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
45′HALF-TIME Virtus Francavilla 1–0 Real Forio 2014
46′SECOND HALF Virtus Francavilla 1–0 Real Forio 2014
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Virtus Francavilla 2–0 Real Forio 2014
FTFULL TIME Virtus Francavilla 2–0 Real Forio 2014
FTVirtus Francavilla 2–0 Real Forio 2014 · Virtus Francavilla win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Virtus Francavilla win51%

Draw25%

Real Forio 2014 win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadio Giovanni Paolo II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Virtus Francavilla

Real Forio 2014

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	6	+4	15
11	Real Forio 2014	6	0	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · virtus francavilla winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Virtus Francavilla a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Virtus Francavilla win	51%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Real Forio 2014 win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Virtus Francavilla or draw	76%	–	–
Virtus Francavilla clean sheet	34%	–	–
Real Forio 2014 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.9 6.4 3.8 1 10.0 11.7 6.2 2.3 2 8.7 9.4 5.1 3 4.9 5.3 2.9 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Virtus Francavilla down, Real Forio 2014 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Virtus Francavilla at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Real Forio 2014 away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Virtus Francavilla, 1.10 for Real Forio 2014. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H

VIRTUS FRANCAVILLA

WWWWWL3–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–4

REAL FORIO 2014

WLWDLL4–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	6	+4	15
2	Nocerina	6	+4	13
3	Martina Franca	6	+5	12
4	Bisceglie	6	+5	12
5	Turris	6	+4	12
6	Gravina	6	+5	11
7	Manfredonia	6	+4	11
8	Real Normanna	6	0	10
9	Brindisi	6	0	9
10	Ebolitana	6	−2	8
11	Real Forio 2014	6	0	7
12	Gladiator	6	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	6	−3	7
14	Nardò	6	−6	5
15	Melfi	6	−4	4
16	Fidelis Andria	6	−5	4
17	Francavilla	6	−4	3
18	Ischia	6	−5	2