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Virtus Francavilla v Manfredonia
Virtus FrancavillaManfredoniaSerie D - Girone H · SUN 25 OCT · Stadio Giovanni Paolo II
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Virtus Francavilla are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Virtus Francavilla 50%, draw 27%, Manfredonia 23%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Virtus Francavilla win50%Manfredonia win23%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00
RoundGroup H · matchday 9
VenueStadio Giovanni Paolo II
Match timeline
All events
Virtus FrancavillaMINManfredoniaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Virtus Francavilla
Manfredonia
Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone H
Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone H
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Virtus Francavilla | 8 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 | Manfredonia | 8 | +3 | 14 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Virtus Francavilla a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Francavilla win | 50% | 54% | −4 |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | +1 |
| Manfredonia win | 23% | 20% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 51% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | – | – |
| Virtus Francavilla or draw | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Virtus Francavilla clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
| Manfredonia clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 16 Sept
VIRTUS FRANCAVILLA
MANFREDONIA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Martina Franca | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 2 |  Turris | 8 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | Virtus Francavilla | 8 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 |  Bisceglie | 8 | +5 | 15 |
| 5 |  Brindisi | 8 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 | Manfredonia | 8 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 |  Gravina | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 8 |  Nocerina | 8 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 |  Real Normanna | 8 | −1 | 11 |
| 10 |  USD Palmese | 8 | −2 | 10 |
| 11 |  Fidelis Andria | 8 | −3 | 10 |
| 12 |  Gladiator | 8 | −2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Ebolitana | 8 | −6 | 8 |
| 14 |  Real Forio 2014 | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Melfi | 8 | −6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Ischia | 8 | −4 | 5 |
| 17 |  Francavilla | 8 | −4 | 5 |
| 18 |  Nardò | 8 | −8 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.