USD Palmese v Ebolitana prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

USD Palmese 2–0 Ebolitana USD PALMESE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said USD Palmese win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.418

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said USD Palmese win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: USD Palmese was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF USD Palmese v Ebolitana
21′USD Palmese score on 21′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–10
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' USD Palmese 1–0 Ebolitana
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' USD Palmese win: 47% at kick-off, 73% now
22′We published USD Palmese at 47%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
38′We published USD Palmese at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
40′USD Palmese find the net on 40′. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
40′We published USD Palmese at 47%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' USD Palmese 2–0 Ebolitana
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' USD Palmese win: 47% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME USD Palmese 2–0 Ebolitana
46′USD Palmese ahead on 35′ through G. Giuliodori. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
46′SECOND HALF USD Palmese 2–0 Ebolitana
51′We published USD Palmese at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' USD Palmese win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
82′We published USD Palmese at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME USD Palmese 2–0 Ebolitana
FTUSD Palmese 2–0 Ebolitana · USD Palmese win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

USD Palmese are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: USD Palmese 47%, draw 25%, Ebolitana 28%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on USD Palmese v EbolitanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

USD Palmese win47%

Draw25%

Ebolitana win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup H · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

USD Palmese

Ebolitana

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone H

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Ebolitana	7	−4	8
13	USD Palmese	7	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usd palmese winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make USD Palmese a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · USD Palmese v Ebolitana~~1.64 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~13 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
USD Palmese win	47%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Ebolitana win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
USD Palmese or draw	72%	–	–
USD Palmese clean sheet	31%	–	–
Ebolitana clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.7 6.7 4.2 1 9.3 11.7 6.7 2.7 2 7.9 9.1 5.4 2.2 3 4.3 5.0 3.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+USD Palmese down, Ebolitana across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,674 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

USD Palmese at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ebolitana away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for USD Palmese, 1.20 for Ebolitana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 12 Sept

USD PALMESE

DWLLWL0–0 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 0–3 · 4–2 · 2–3

EBOLITANA

DWLWDL1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	7	+6	18
2	Martina Franca	7	+7	15
3	Turris	7	+7	15
4	Bisceglie	8	+5	15
5	Nocerina	7	+3	13
6	Gravina	7	+5	12
7	Brindisi	7	+1	12
8	Manfredonia	7	+1	11
9	Real Normanna	7	−1	10
10	Gladiator	7	−2	8
11	Ebolitana	7	−4	8
12	Real Forio 2014	7	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	7	−4	7
14	Fidelis Andria	7	−4	7
15	Melfi	8	−6	7
16	Ischia	7	−2	5
17	Francavilla	7	−4	4
18	Nardò	7	−6	4