Real Normanna v Turris prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Real NormannaDrawTurris

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Normanna 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Normanna are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Normanna 38%, draw 29%, Turris 32%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Real Normanna v TurrisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Real Normanna win38%

Draw29%

Turris win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup H · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Normanna

Turris

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone H

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Turris	8	+8	18
9	Real Normanna	8	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real normanna winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market26%

Us38%

~~Market~~26%

We make Real Normanna a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Normanna v Turris~~1.20 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 18~~9 v 2

~~The market · Real Normanna win~~26% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Normanna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Normanna win	38%	26%	+12
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Turris win	32%	48%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	40%	48%	−8
Both teams to score	46%	51%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	66%	72%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	20%	29%	−9
Real Normanna or draw	68%	52%	+16
Real Normanna clean sheet	35%	–	–
Turris clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 11.1 10.6 6.0 2.2 1 11.8 13.5 7.0 2.5 2 7.4 7.7 4.1 3 3.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Normanna down, Turris across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Real Normanna at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Turris away: 1.25 scored, 0.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Real Normanna, 1.07 for Turris. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 16 Sept

REAL NORMANNA

LWWLLD1–2 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 3–3

TURRIS

DWWDWW0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Martina Franca	8	+9	18
2	Turris	8	+8	18
3	Virtus Francavilla	8	+5	18
4	Bisceglie	8	+5	15
5	Brindisi	8	+3	15
6	Manfredonia	8	+3	14
7	Gravina	8	+5	13
8	Nocerina	8	+1	13
9	Real Normanna	8	−1	11
10	USD Palmese	9	−2	11
11	Fidelis Andria	8	−3	10
12	Gladiator	8	−2	9
13	Ebolitana	8	−6	8
14	Melfi	9	−6	8
15	Real Forio 2014	8	−3	7
16	Ischia	8	−4	5
17	Francavilla	8	−4	5
18	Nardò	8	−8	4