Real Normanna v Fidelis Andria prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Real Normanna 0–1 Fidelis Andria REAL NORMANNA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Normanna win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.769

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Normanna win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Real Normanna v Fidelis Andria
2′Much as we predicted: Real Normanna was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–31–29
5′Much as we predicted: Real Normanna was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–29
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Real Normanna 1–0 Fidelis Andria
39′A goal for Real Normanna on 31′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 32–44–24
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Real Normanna win 32%)
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Real Normanna win 32%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Real Normanna win 32%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Real Normanna win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Real Normanna 0–0 Fidelis Andria
46′SECOND HALF Real Normanna 0–0 Fidelis Andria
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Real Normanna 0–1 Fidelis Andria
90′⚽ GOAL · 47' Real Normanna 0–1 Fidelis Andria
FTFULL TIME Real Normanna 0–1 Fidelis Andria
FTReal Normanna 0–1 Fidelis Andria · Real Normanna win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Real Normanna win40%

Draw32%

Fidelis Andria win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Real Normanna

Fidelis Andria

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Real Normanna	6	0	10
16	Fidelis Andria	6	−5	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real normanna winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Real Normanna a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Normanna win	40%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Fidelis Andria win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Real Normanna or draw	71%	–	–
Real Normanna clean sheet	42%	–	–
Fidelis Andria clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.8%

0123450 14.8 11.7 5.4 1 14.5 13.6 5.8 2 8.2 7.1 3.2 3 3.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Normanna down, Fidelis Andria across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Normanna at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Fidelis Andria away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Real Normanna, 0.88 for Fidelis Andria. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FID 1–0 REA · REA 1–0 FID

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H

REAL NORMANNA

WDLWWL2–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 0–3

FIDELIS ANDRIA

LLDLLW1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	6	+4	15
2	Nocerina	6	+4	13
3	Martina Franca	6	+5	12
4	Bisceglie	6	+5	12
5	Turris	6	+4	12
6	Gravina	6	+5	11
7	Manfredonia	6	+4	11
8	Real Normanna	6	0	10
9	Brindisi	6	0	9
10	Ebolitana	6	−2	8
11	Real Forio 2014	6	0	7
12	Gladiator	6	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	6	−3	7
14	Nardò	6	−6	5
15	Melfi	6	−4	4
16	Fidelis Andria	6	−5	4
17	Francavilla	6	−4	3
18	Ischia	6	−5	2