Nocerina v Gladiator prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NocerinaDrawGladiator

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nocerina 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nocerina are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nocerina 62%, draw 20%, Gladiator 18%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Nocerina v GladiatorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Nocerina win62%

Draw20%

Gladiator win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup H · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nocerina

Gladiator

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone H

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Nocerina	8	+1	13
12	Gladiator	8	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nocerina winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

62% The market57%

Us62%

~~Market~~57%

We make Nocerina a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nocerina v Gladiator~~2.30 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~8 v 12

~~The market · Nocerina win~~57% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nocerina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nocerina win	62%	57%	+5
Draw	20%	25%	−5
Gladiator win	18%	18%	0
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Nocerina or draw	82%	82%	0
Nocerina clean sheet	34%	–	–
Gladiator clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 4.2 3.8 2.3 1 7.6 8.9 4.7 2 8.6 9.1 5.0 3 6.4 6.8 3.7 4 3.7 3.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nocerina down, Gladiator across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nocerina at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gladiator away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.30 goals for Nocerina, 1.11 for Gladiator. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NOC 2–0 GLA · GLA 0–2 NOC · NOC 2–2 GLA · GLA 2–0 NOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 16 Sept

NOCERINA

WLWWLL3–2 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2

GLADIATOR

LWLDDD1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Martina Franca	8	+9	18
2	Turris	8	+8	18
3	Virtus Francavilla	8	+5	18
4	Bisceglie	8	+5	15
5	Brindisi	8	+3	15
6	Manfredonia	8	+3	14
7	Gravina	8	+5	13
8	Nocerina	8	+1	13
9	Real Normanna	8	−1	11
10	USD Palmese	9	−2	11
11	Fidelis Andria	8	−3	10
12	Gladiator	8	−2	9
13	Ebolitana	8	−6	8
14	Melfi	9	−6	8
15	Real Forio 2014	8	−3	7
16	Ischia	8	−4	5
17	Francavilla	8	−4	5
18	Nardò	8	−8	4