Nocerina v Brindisi prediction · Serie D - Girone H

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Nocerina 0–1 Brindisi NOCERINA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nocerina win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.981

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nocerina win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nocerina 56% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–22–21
2′Little has changed for our model: Nocerina 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–21
47′We said Nocerina at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–36–20
49′We said Nocerina at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–38–20
69′We said Nocerina at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–55–15
85′Brindisi find the net on 77′. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–9–90
90′Brindisi find the net on 77′. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–0–100
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Brindisi win 15%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Nocerina win: 56% at kick-off, 1% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Brindisi win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 9%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Nocerina win: 56% at kick-off, 30% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Nocerina win: 56% at kick-off, 0% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Brindisi win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
FTFULL TIME Nocerina 0–1 Brindisi
FTNocerina 0–1 Brindisi · Nocerina win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Nocerina win56%

Draw23%

Brindisi win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nocerina

Brindisi

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Nocerina	6	+4	13
9	Brindisi	6	0	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nocerina winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Nocerina a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nocerina win	56%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Brindisi win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Nocerina or draw	79%	–	–
Nocerina clean sheet	34%	–	–
Brindisi clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.9 5.2 3.1 1 9.2 10.6 5.5 2.1 2 8.9 9.3 5.1 3 5.7 5.9 3.2 4 2.8 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nocerina down, Brindisi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nocerina at home: 3.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Brindisi away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Nocerina, 1.09 for Brindisi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NOC 2–0 BRI · BRI 2–1 NOC · BRI 1–0 NOC · NOC 3–0 BRI

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H

NOCERINA

WDWLWW2–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 1–0

BRINDISI

LWLLWW1–4 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	6	+4	15
2	Nocerina	6	+4	13
3	Martina Franca	6	+5	12
4	Bisceglie	6	+5	12
5	Turris	6	+4	12
6	Gravina	6	+5	11
7	Manfredonia	6	+4	11
8	Real Normanna	6	0	10
9	Brindisi	6	0	9
10	Ebolitana	6	−2	8
11	Real Forio 2014	6	0	7
12	Gladiator	6	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	6	−3	7
14	Nardò	6	−6	5
15	Melfi	6	−4	4
16	Fidelis Andria	6	−5	4
17	Francavilla	6	−4	3
18	Ischia	6	−5	2