Nardò v Gravina prediction · Serie D - Girone H

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Nardò 1–1 Gravina NARDÒ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Nardò win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nardò win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Nardò v Gravina
2′Much as we predicted: Nardò was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
5′Much as we predicted: Nardò was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Nardò 0–1 Gravina
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Nardò 1–1 Gravina
45′HALF-TIME Nardò 1–1 Gravina
46′SECOND HALF Nardò 1–1 Gravina
57′🟥 RED CARD · 57' Gravina
FTFULL TIME Nardò 1–1 Gravina
FTNardò 1–1 Gravina · Nardò win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Nardò win42%

Draw27%

Gravina win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nardò

Gravina

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Gravina	6	+5	11
14	Nardò	6	−6	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nardò winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Nardò a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nardò win	42%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Gravina win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Nardò or draw	69%	–	–
Nardò clean sheet	31%	–	–
Gravina clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 8.3 5.2 2.1 1 10.0 12.7 7.2 2.9 2 7.4 8.5 5.0 2.0 3 3.6 4.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nardò down, Gravina across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nardò at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gravina away: 2.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Nardò, 1.19 for Gravina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GRA 2–2 NAR · NAR 1–1 GRA · GRA 2–0 NAR · NAR 5–1 GRA

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H

NARDÒ

LDDWLL0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–4

GRAVINA

WWDDLW3–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	6	+4	15
2	Nocerina	6	+4	13
3	Martina Franca	6	+5	12
4	Bisceglie	6	+5	12
5	Turris	6	+4	12
6	Gravina	6	+5	11
7	Manfredonia	6	+4	11
8	Real Normanna	6	0	10
9	Brindisi	6	0	9
10	Ebolitana	6	−2	8
11	Real Forio 2014	6	0	7
12	Gladiator	6	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	6	−3	7
14	Nardò	6	−6	5
15	Melfi	6	−4	4
16	Fidelis Andria	6	−5	4
17	Francavilla	6	−4	3
18	Ischia	6	−5	2