Nardò v Fidelis Andria prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NardòDrawFidelis Andria

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nardò 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nardò are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nardò 42%, draw 31%, Fidelis Andria 28%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Nardò v Fidelis AndriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Nardò win42%

Draw31%

Fidelis Andria win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup H · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nardò

Fidelis Andria

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone H

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Fidelis Andria	8	−3	10
18	Nardò	8	−8	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nardò winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Nardò a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nardò v Fidelis Andria~~1.18 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 10~~18 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nardò win	42%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Fidelis Andria win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Nardò or draw	72%	–	–
Nardò clean sheet	41%	–	–
Fidelis Andria clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 13.4 10.8 5.1 1 14.2 13.5 5.9 2 8.6 7.6 3.4 3 3.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nardò down, Fidelis Andria across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nardò at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fidelis Andria away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Nardò, 0.90 for Fidelis Andria. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~NAR 3–2 FID · FID 0–0 NAR · FID 1–0 NAR · NAR 0–2 FID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 16 Sept

NARDÒ

DWLLDL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 0–2

FIDELIS ANDRIA

DLLWWW1–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Martina Franca	8	+9	18
2	Turris	8	+8	18
3	Virtus Francavilla	8	+5	18
4	Bisceglie	8	+5	15
5	Brindisi	8	+3	15
6	Manfredonia	8	+3	14
7	Gravina	8	+5	13
8	Nocerina	8	+1	13
9	Real Normanna	8	−1	11
10	USD Palmese	9	−2	11
11	Fidelis Andria	8	−3	10
12	Gladiator	8	−2	9
13	Ebolitana	8	−6	8
14	Melfi	9	−6	8
15	Real Forio 2014	8	−3	7
16	Ischia	8	−4	5
17	Francavilla	8	−4	5
18	Nardò	8	−8	4