Melfi v Bisceglie prediction · Serie D - Girone H

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Melfi 1–0 Bisceglie BISCEGLIE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bisceglie win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.709

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bisceglie are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Melfi 32%, draw 28%, Bisceglie 40%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Melfi v BisceglieBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Melfi win32%

Draw28%

Bisceglie win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup H · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Melfi

Bisceglie

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone H

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bisceglie	7	+6	15
18	Melfi	7	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bisceglie winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Bisceglie a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Melfi v Bisceglie~~1.13 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 15~~18 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bisceglie win

Published at 38%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Melfi win	32%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Bisceglie win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Melfi or draw	60%	–	–
Melfi clean sheet	28%	–	–
Bisceglie clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.7 10.9 7.4 3.3 1 9.4 12.9 8.1 3.6 2 5.6 7.0 4.5 2.0 3 2.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Melfi down, Bisceglie across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,673 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Melfi at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Bisceglie away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Melfi, 1.32 for Bisceglie. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 13 Sept

MELFI

LDWLLL0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–3

BISCEGLIE

WLWWLW2–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	7	+6	18
2	Martina Franca	7	+7	15
3	Turris	7	+7	15
4	Bisceglie	7	+6	15
5	Nocerina	7	+3	13
6	Gravina	7	+5	12
7	Brindisi	7	+1	12
8	Manfredonia	7	+1	11
9	Real Normanna	7	−1	10
10	Gladiator	7	−2	8
11	Ebolitana	7	−4	8
12	Real Forio 2014	7	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	7	−4	7
14	Fidelis Andria	7	−4	7
15	Ischia	7	−2	5
16	Francavilla	7	−4	4
17	Nardò	7	−6	4
18	Melfi	7	−7	4