Martina Franca v Nocerina prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Martina Franca 2–0 Nocerina MARTINA FRANCA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Martina Franca win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.427

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Martina Franca win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Martina Franca was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
1′KICK-OFF Martina Franca v Nocerina
26′We published Martina Franca at 47%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
26′Martina Franca find the net on 25′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Martina Franca 1–0 Nocerina
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Martina Franca win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
30′We published Martina Franca at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–8
45′HALF-TIME Martina Franca 1–0 Nocerina
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Martina Franca win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
46′SECOND HALF Martina Franca 1–0 Nocerina
59′We published Martina Franca at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
71′We published Martina Franca at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Martina Franca win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
78′A goal for Martina Franca on 78′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Martina Franca 2–0 Nocerina
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Martina Franca win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
79′We published Martina Franca at 47%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
81′We published Martina Franca at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Martina Franca 2–0 Nocerina
FTMartina Franca 2–0 Nocerina · Martina Franca win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Martina Franca are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Martina Franca 47%, draw 26%, Nocerina 27%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Martina Franca v NocerinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Martina Franca win47%

Draw26%

Nocerina win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup H · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Martina Franca

Nocerina

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone H

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Martina Franca	7	+7	15
5	Nocerina	7	+3	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · martina franca winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Martina Franca a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Martina Franca v Nocerina~~1.53 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 13~~2 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Martina Franca win	47%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Nocerina win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Martina Franca or draw	73%	–	–
Martina Franca clean sheet	34%	–	–
Nocerina clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.1 7.6 4.4 1 10.8 12.3 6.4 2.4 2 8.4 8.9 4.8 3 4.3 4.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Martina Franca down, Nocerina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,674 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Martina Franca at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Nocerina away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Martina Franca, 1.09 for Nocerina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~NOC 2–1 MAR · MAR 0–0 NOC · NOC 0–2 MAR · NOC 0–1 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 12 Sept

MARTINA FRANCA

WWLWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

NOCERINA

DWLWWL2–2 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	7	+6	18
2	Martina Franca	7	+7	15
3	Turris	7	+7	15
4	Bisceglie	8	+5	15
5	Nocerina	7	+3	13
6	Gravina	7	+5	12
7	Brindisi	7	+1	12
8	Manfredonia	7	+1	11
9	Real Normanna	7	−1	10
10	Gladiator	7	−2	8
11	Ebolitana	7	−4	8
12	Real Forio 2014	7	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	7	−4	7
14	Fidelis Andria	7	−4	7
15	Melfi	8	−6	7
16	Ischia	7	−2	5
17	Francavilla	7	−4	4
18	Nardò	7	−6	4