Manfredonia v Ischia prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Manfredonia 2–0 Ischia MANFREDONIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Manfredonia win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.469

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Manfredonia win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Manfredonia 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Manfredonia v Ischia
43′Manfredonia find the net on 42′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Manfredonia 2–0 Ischia
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Manfredonia 2–0 Ischia
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Manfredonia win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
45′We said Manfredonia at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Manfredonia 2–0 Ischia
46′SECOND HALF Manfredonia 2–0 Ischia
47′We said Manfredonia at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
58′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–0
81′We said Manfredonia at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Manfredonia 2–0 Ischia
FTManfredonia 2–0 Ischia · Manfredonia win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manfredonia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Manfredonia 44%, draw 27%, Ischia 28%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Manfredonia v IschiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Manfredonia win44%

Draw27%

Ischia win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup H · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Manfredonia

Ischia

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone H

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Manfredonia	7	+1	11
16	Ischia	7	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · manfredonia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Manfredonia a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Manfredonia v Ischia~~1.41 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 5~~8 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Manfredonia win	44%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Ischia win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Manfredonia or draw	72%	–	–
Manfredonia clean sheet	35%	–	–
Ischia clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.2 8.6 4.9 1 11.3 12.8 6.6 2.4 2 8.2 8.6 4.6 3 3.9 4.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Manfredonia down, Ischia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,674 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Manfredonia at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ischia away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Manfredonia, 1.08 for Ischia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAN 3–0 ISC · ISC 0–2 MAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 12 Sept

MANFREDONIA

DDWWWL2–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

ISCHIA

DLLLDW2–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	7	+6	18
2	Martina Franca	7	+7	15
3	Turris	7	+7	15
4	Bisceglie	8	+5	15
5	Nocerina	7	+3	13
6	Gravina	7	+5	12
7	Brindisi	7	+1	12
8	Manfredonia	7	+1	11
9	Real Normanna	7	−1	10
10	Gladiator	7	−2	8
11	Ebolitana	7	−4	8
12	Real Forio 2014	7	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	7	−4	7
14	Fidelis Andria	7	−4	7
15	Melfi	8	−6	7
16	Ischia	7	−2	5
17	Francavilla	7	−4	4
18	Nardò	7	−6	4