Ischia v Melfi prediction · Serie D - Girone H

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Ischia 3–0 Melfi ISCHIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ischia win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.481

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ischia win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF Ischia v Melfi
2′Much as we predicted: Ischia was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–29
4′Much as we predicted: Ischia was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–28
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Ischia 2–0 Melfi
45′HALF-TIME Ischia 2–0 Melfi
46′SECOND HALF Ischia 2–0 Melfi
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Ischia 3–0 Melfi
90′⚽ GOAL · 35' Ischia 3–0 Melfi
90′⚽ GOAL · 47' Ischia 3–0 Melfi
90′⚽ GOAL · 71' Ischia 3–0 Melfi
FTFULL TIME Ischia 3–0 Melfi
FTIschia 3–0 Melfi · Ischia win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ischia win43%

Draw28%

Melfi win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ischia

Melfi

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Melfi	6	−4	4
18	Ischia	6	−5	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ischia winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Ischia a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ischia win	43%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Melfi win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Ischia or draw	72%	–	–
Ischia clean sheet	36%	–	–
Melfi clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.2 9.1 5.0 1 12.0 13.1 6.4 2.3 2 8.3 8.3 4.3 3 3.8 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ischia down, Melfi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ischia at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Melfi away: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Ischia, 1.03 for Melfi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H

ISCHIA

LDLLLD0–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–1

MELFI

LLDWLL0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	6	+4	15
2	Nocerina	6	+4	13
3	Martina Franca	6	+5	12
4	Bisceglie	6	+5	12
5	Turris	6	+4	12
6	Gravina	6	+5	11
7	Manfredonia	6	+4	11
8	Real Normanna	6	0	10
9	Brindisi	6	0	9
10	Ebolitana	6	−2	8
11	Real Forio 2014	6	0	7
12	Gladiator	6	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	6	−3	7
14	Nardò	6	−6	5
15	Melfi	6	−4	4
16	Fidelis Andria	6	−5	4
17	Francavilla	6	−4	3
18	Ischia	6	−5	2