Ischia v Martina Franca prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

IschiaDrawMartina Franca

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Martina Franca 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Martina Franca are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ischia 28%, draw 27%, Martina Franca 45%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Ischia v Martina FrancaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ischia win28%

Draw27%

Martina Franca win45%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup H · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ischia

Martina Franca

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone H

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · martina franca winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market47%

Us45%

~~Market~~47%

We make Martina Franca a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ischia v Martina Franca~~1.07 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 18~~16 v 1

~~The market · Martina Franca win~~47% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Martina Franca win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ischia win	28%	26%	+2
Draw	27%	27%	0
Martina Franca win	45%	47%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	34%	−9
Ischia or draw	55%	53%	+2
Ischia clean sheet	24%	–	–
Martina Franca clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.9 11.2 8.3 4.1 1 8.3 12.7 8.7 4.2 2 4.7 6.5 4.6 2.3 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ischia down, Martina Franca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ischia at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Martina Franca away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Ischia, 1.45 for Martina Franca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAR 2–0 ISC · ISC 0–3 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 16 Sept

ISCHIA

LLLDWL2–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–2

MARTINA FRANCA

WLWWWW2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Martina Franca	8	+9	18
2	Turris	8	+8	18
3	Virtus Francavilla	8	+5	18
4	Bisceglie	8	+5	15
5	Brindisi	8	+3	15
6	Manfredonia	8	+3	14
7	Gravina	8	+5	13
8	Nocerina	8	+1	13
9	Real Normanna	8	−1	11
10	USD Palmese	9	−2	11
11	Fidelis Andria	8	−3	10
12	Gladiator	8	−2	9
13	Ebolitana	8	−6	8
14	Melfi	9	−6	8
15	Real Forio 2014	8	−3	7
16	Ischia	8	−4	5
17	Francavilla	8	−4	5
18	Nardò	8	−8	4