Gravina v Francavilla

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Gravina win at 53%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Gravina was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
3. 1′KICK-OFF Gravina v Francavilla
4. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Gravina win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
5. 43′We said Gravina at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–39–20
6. 45′A goal for Gravina on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
7. 45′We published Gravina at 53%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
8. 45′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
9. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Gravina 1–0 Francavilla
10. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Gravina win: 53% at kick-off, 81% now
11. 45′HALF-TIME Gravina 1–0 Francavilla
12. 46′SECOND HALF Gravina 1–0 Francavilla
13. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Gravina win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
14. 64′We published Gravina at 53%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
15. 76′We published Gravina at 53%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
16. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Gravina win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
17. 84′We published Gravina at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
18. 90′Francavilla score on 89′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 5–92–3
19. 90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Gravina 1–1 Francavilla
20. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Gravina win: 53% at kick-off, 5% now
21. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Gravina win 5%)
22. 91′We said Gravina at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–2
23. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Gravina win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
24. FTFULL TIME Gravina 1–1 Francavilla
25. FTGravina 1–1 Francavilla · Gravina win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.