Francavilla v Real Forio 2014 prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FrancavillaDrawReal Forio 2014

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Francavilla 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Francavilla are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Francavilla 45%, draw 28%, Real Forio 2014 27%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Francavilla v Real Forio 2014Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Francavilla win45%

Draw28%

Real Forio 2014 win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup H · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Francavilla

Real Forio 2014

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone H

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Real Forio 2014	8	−3	7
17	Francavilla	8	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · francavilla winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Francavilla a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Francavilla v Real Forio 2014~~1.36 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~17 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Francavilla win	45%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Real Forio 2014 win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Francavilla or draw	73%	–	–
Francavilla clean sheet	38%	–	–
Real Forio 2014 clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.5 9.1 4.7 1 12.6 13.1 6.2 2.1 2 8.8 8.5 4.2 3 4.0 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Francavilla down, Real Forio 2014 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Francavilla at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Real Forio 2014 away: 0.75 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Francavilla, 0.98 for Real Forio 2014. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 16 Sept

FRANCAVILLA

LLLLDD0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

REAL FORIO 2014

WDLLLL2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Martina Franca	8	+9	18
2	Turris	8	+8	18
3	Virtus Francavilla	8	+5	18
4	Bisceglie	8	+5	15
5	Brindisi	8	+3	15
6	Manfredonia	8	+3	14
7	Gravina	8	+5	13
8	Nocerina	8	+1	13
9	Real Normanna	8	−1	11
10	USD Palmese	9	−2	11
11	Fidelis Andria	8	−3	10
12	Gladiator	8	−2	9
13	Ebolitana	8	−6	8
14	Melfi	9	−6	8
15	Real Forio 2014	8	−3	7
16	Ischia	8	−4	5
17	Francavilla	8	−4	5
18	Nardò	8	−8	4