Francavilla v Gladiator prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Francavilla 1–1 Gladiator FRANCAVILLA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Francavilla win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.820

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Francavilla win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Francavilla v Gladiator
4′Little has changed for our model: Francavilla 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
5′Little has changed for our model: Francavilla 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
45′HALF-TIME Francavilla 0–0 Gladiator
46′SECOND HALF Francavilla 0–0 Gladiator
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Francavilla 1–0 Gladiator
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Francavilla 1–1 Gladiator
FTFULL TIME Francavilla 1–1 Gladiator
FTFrancavilla 1–1 Gladiator · Francavilla win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Francavilla win46%

Draw27%

Gladiator win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Francavilla

Gladiator

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Gladiator	6	−2	7
17	Francavilla	6	−4	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · francavilla winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Francavilla a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Francavilla win	46%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Gladiator win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Francavilla or draw	73%	–	–
Francavilla clean sheet	35%	–	–
Gladiator clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.9 8.0 4.5 1 11.2 12.5 6.3 2.3 2 8.5 8.7 4.6 3 4.3 4.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Francavilla down, Gladiator across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Francavilla at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gladiator away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Francavilla, 1.06 for Gladiator. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FRA 0–1 GLA · GLA 1–1 FRA

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H

FRANCAVILLA

WLLLLL1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

GLADIATOR

WLLWLD2–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	6	+4	15
2	Nocerina	6	+4	13
3	Martina Franca	6	+5	12
4	Bisceglie	6	+5	12
5	Turris	6	+4	12
6	Gravina	6	+5	11
7	Manfredonia	6	+4	11
8	Real Normanna	6	0	10
9	Brindisi	6	0	9
10	Ebolitana	6	−2	8
11	Real Forio 2014	6	0	7
12	Gladiator	6	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	6	−3	7
14	Nardò	6	−6	5
15	Melfi	6	−4	4
16	Fidelis Andria	6	−5	4
17	Francavilla	6	−4	3
18	Ischia	6	−5	2