Fidelis Andria v Virtus Francavilla prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Fidelis Andria 2–1 Virtus Francavilla FIDELIS ANDRIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fidelis Andria win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.512

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fidelis Andria win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fidelis Andria was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–30–29
1′KICK-OFF Fidelis Andria v Virtus Francavilla
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Fidelis Andria win 35%)
45′Fidelis Andria score on 45′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
45′We published Fidelis Andria at 42%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 76–19–5
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Fidelis Andria win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Fidelis Andria 1–0 Virtus Francavilla
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Fidelis Andria win: 42% at kick-off, 76% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Fidelis Andria win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
45′HALF-TIME Fidelis Andria 1–0 Virtus Francavilla
46′SECOND HALF Fidelis Andria 1–0 Virtus Francavilla
59′We published Fidelis Andria at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Fidelis Andria win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
70′We published Fidelis Andria at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
79′We published Fidelis Andria at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Fidelis Andria win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
85′We published Fidelis Andria at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′We published Fidelis Andria at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Fidelis Andria 2–0 Virtus Francavilla
90′Fidelis Andria find the net on 89′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
101′Fidelis Andria find the net on 89′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Fidelis Andria 2–1 Virtus Francavilla
FTFidelis Andria 2–1 Virtus Francavilla · Fidelis Andria win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fidelis Andria are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fidelis Andria 42%, draw 29%, Virtus Francavilla 29%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Fidelis Andria v Virtus FrancavillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fidelis Andria win42%

Draw29%

Virtus Francavilla win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundGroup H · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fidelis Andria

Virtus Francavilla

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone H

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fidelis andria winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Fidelis Andria a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fidelis Andria v Virtus Francavilla~~1.25 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 18~~14 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fidelis Andria win	42%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Virtus Francavilla win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Fidelis Andria or draw	71%	–	–
Fidelis Andria clean sheet	37%	–	–
Virtus Francavilla clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.4 10.1 5.3 1 12.7 13.4 6.4 2.2 2 8.2 8.0 4.0 3 3.5 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fidelis Andria down, Virtus Francavilla across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,674 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.78 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fidelis Andria at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Virtus Francavilla away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Fidelis Andria, 1.00 for Virtus Francavilla. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.78

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~VIR 0–2 FID · FID 1–2 VIR · VIR 0–2 FID · FID 0–1 VIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 12 Sept

FIDELIS ANDRIA

LDLLWW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

VIRTUS FRANCAVILLA

WWWWLW1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	7	+6	18
2	Martina Franca	7	+7	15
3	Turris	7	+7	15
4	Bisceglie	8	+5	15
5	Nocerina	7	+3	13
6	Gravina	7	+5	12
7	Brindisi	7	+1	12
8	Manfredonia	7	+1	11
9	Real Normanna	7	−1	10
10	Gladiator	7	−2	8
11	Ebolitana	7	−4	8
12	Real Forio 2014	7	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	7	−4	7
14	Fidelis Andria	7	−4	7
15	Melfi	8	−6	7
16	Ischia	7	−2	5
17	Francavilla	7	−4	4
18	Nardò	7	−6	4