Ebolitana v Martina Franca prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Ebolitana 0–2 Martina Franca MARTINA FRANCA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Martina Franca win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.505

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Martina Franca win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Ebolitana v Martina Franca
2′Much as we predicted: Martina Franca was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 30–28–42
4′Much as we predicted: Martina Franca was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 30–28–42
45′HALF-TIME Ebolitana 0–0 Martina Franca
46′SECOND HALF Ebolitana 0–0 Martina Franca
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Ebolitana 0–1 Martina Franca
89′⚽ GOAL · 66' Ebolitana 0–1 Martina Franca
FTFULL TIME Ebolitana 0–2 Martina Franca
FTEbolitana 0–2 Martina Franca · Martina Franca win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ebolitana win30%

Draw28%

Martina Franca win42%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ebolitana

Martina Franca

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Martina Franca	6	+5	12
10	Ebolitana	6	−2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · martina franca winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Martina Franca a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ebolitana win	30%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Martina Franca win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Ebolitana or draw	58%	–	–
Ebolitana clean sheet	27%	–	–
Martina Franca clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.0 11.5 8.0 3.6 1 9.3 13.2 8.3 3.7 2 5.3 6.7 4.4 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ebolitana down, Martina Franca across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ebolitana at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Martina Franca away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Ebolitana, 1.33 for Martina Franca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H

EBOLITANA

LDWLWD1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

MARTINA FRANCA

LWWLWW3–4 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	6	+4	15
2	Nocerina	6	+4	13
3	Martina Franca	6	+5	12
4	Bisceglie	6	+5	12
5	Turris	6	+4	12
6	Gravina	6	+5	11
7	Manfredonia	6	+4	11
8	Real Normanna	6	0	10
9	Brindisi	6	0	9
10	Ebolitana	6	−2	8
11	Real Forio 2014	6	0	7
12	Gladiator	6	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	6	−3	7
14	Nardò	6	−6	5
15	Melfi	6	−4	4
16	Fidelis Andria	6	−5	4
17	Francavilla	6	−4	3
18	Ischia	6	−5	2