Ebolitana v Gravina prediction · Serie D - Girone H

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

EbolitanaDrawGravina

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Gravina 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gravina are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ebolitana 33%, draw 27%, Gravina 40%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Ebolitana v GravinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ebolitana win33%

Draw27%

Gravina win40%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup H · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ebolitana

Gravina

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone H

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Gravina	8	+5	13
13	Ebolitana	8	−6	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gravina winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market35%

Us40%

~~Market~~35%

We make Gravina a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ebolitana v Gravina~~1.24 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~13 v 7

~~The market · Gravina win~~35% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gravina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ebolitana win	33%	34%	−1
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Gravina win	40%	35%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	49%	46%	+3
Both teams to score	53%	51%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	69%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	27%	0
Ebolitana or draw	60%	65%	−5
Ebolitana clean sheet	25%	–	–
Gravina clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.0 9.6 6.9 3.3 1 8.6 12.6 8.4 3.9 2 5.6 7.5 5.2 2.4 3 2.3 3.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ebolitana down, Gravina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,683 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Ebolitana at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Gravina away: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Ebolitana, 1.39 for Gravina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 16 Sept

EBOLITANA

WLWDLL2–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

GRAVINA

DDLWDD0–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Martina Franca	8	+9	18
2	Turris	8	+8	18
3	Virtus Francavilla	8	+5	18
4	Bisceglie	8	+5	15
5	Brindisi	8	+3	15
6	Manfredonia	8	+3	14
7	Gravina	8	+5	13
8	Nocerina	8	+1	13
9	Real Normanna	8	−1	11
10	USD Palmese	9	−2	11
11	Fidelis Andria	8	−3	10
12	Gladiator	8	−2	9
13	Ebolitana	8	−6	8
14	Melfi	9	−6	8
15	Real Forio 2014	8	−3	7
16	Ischia	8	−4	5
17	Francavilla	8	−4	5
18	Nardò	8	−8	4