Brindisi v Nardò prediction · Serie D - Girone H

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Brindisi 2–0 Nardò BRINDISI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brindisi win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.448

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brindisi win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Brindisi 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
1′KICK-OFF Brindisi v Nardò
19′A goal for Brindisi on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–9
19′We said Brindisi at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–9
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Brindisi 1–0 Nardò
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Brindisi win: 45% at kick-off, 74% now
28′We said Brindisi at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Brindisi win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′HALF-TIME Brindisi 1–0 Nardò
46′SECOND HALF Brindisi 1–0 Nardò
57′We said Brindisi at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
70′We said Brindisi at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Brindisi win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
79′We said Brindisi at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
86′We said Brindisi at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Brindisi win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
87′Brindisi score on 87′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′We said Brindisi at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Brindisi 2–0 Nardò
FTFULL TIME Brindisi 2–0 Nardò
FTBrindisi 2–0 Nardò · Brindisi win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brindisi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brindisi 45%, draw 28%, Nardò 27%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Brindisi v NardòBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Brindisi win45%

Draw28%

Nardò win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup H · matchday 8

VenueFranco Fanuzzi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brindisi

Nardò

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone H

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Brindisi	7	+1	12
18	Nardò	7	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brindisi winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Brindisi a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brindisi v Nardò~~1.42 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 4~~7 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brindisi win	45%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Nardò win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Brindisi or draw	73%	–	–
Brindisi clean sheet	36%	–	–
Nardò clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.6 8.6 4.6 1 11.9 12.8 6.3 2.2 2 8.6 8.6 4.4 3 4.1 4.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brindisi down, Nardò across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,674 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brindisi at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nardò away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Brindisi, 1.02 for Nardò. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BRI 3–2 NAR · NAR 0–0 BRI · NAR 0–2 BRI · BRI 3–1 NAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H this season · since 12 Sept

BRINDISI

WLLWWW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

NARDÒ

DDWLLD1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	7	+6	18
2	Martina Franca	7	+7	15
3	Turris	7	+7	15
4	Bisceglie	8	+5	15
5	Nocerina	7	+3	13
6	Gravina	7	+5	12
7	Brindisi	7	+1	12
8	Manfredonia	7	+1	11
9	Real Normanna	7	−1	10
10	Gladiator	7	−2	8
11	Ebolitana	7	−4	8
12	Real Forio 2014	7	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	7	−4	7
14	Fidelis Andria	7	−4	7
15	Melfi	8	−6	7
16	Ischia	7	−2	5
17	Francavilla	7	−4	4
18	Nardò	7	−6	4