Bisceglie v USD Palmese prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Bisceglie 3–2 USD Palmese BISCEGLIE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bisceglie win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.294

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bisceglie win at 56%.
1′KICK-OFF Bisceglie v USD Palmese
2′Little has changed for our model: Bisceglie 56% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–22–21
4′Little has changed for our model: Bisceglie 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Bisceglie 1–1 USD Palmese
76′⚽ GOAL · 32' Bisceglie 1–2 USD Palmese
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Bisceglie 2–2 USD Palmese
90′⚽ GOAL · 6' Bisceglie 2–2 USD Palmese
90′⚽ GOAL · 10' Bisceglie 2–2 USD Palmese
90′⚽ GOAL · 32' Bisceglie 2–2 USD Palmese
90′⚽ GOAL · 101' Bisceglie 3–2 USD Palmese
FTFULL TIME Bisceglie 3–2 USD Palmese
FTBisceglie 3–2 USD Palmese · Bisceglie win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Bisceglie win56%

Draw23%

USD Palmese win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bisceglie

USD Palmese

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bisceglie	6	+5	12
13	USD Palmese	6	−3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bisceglie winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Bisceglie a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bisceglie win	56%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
USD Palmese win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Bisceglie or draw	79%	–	–
Bisceglie clean sheet	35%	–	–
USD Palmese clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 6.1 5.3 3.1 1 9.4 10.6 5.4 2.0 2 9.0 9.2 4.9 3 5.7 5.9 3.1 4 2.9 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bisceglie down, USD Palmese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Serie D - Girone H matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone H matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bisceglie at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). USD Palmese away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Bisceglie, 1.08 for USD Palmese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone H

BISCEGLIE

WWLWWL2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 0–1

USD PALMESE

LDWLLW1–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 0–3 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus Francavilla	6	+4	15
2	Nocerina	6	+4	13
3	Martina Franca	6	+5	12
4	Bisceglie	6	+5	12
5	Turris	6	+4	12
6	Gravina	6	+5	11
7	Manfredonia	6	+4	11
8	Real Normanna	6	0	10
9	Brindisi	6	0	9
10	Ebolitana	6	−2	8
11	Real Forio 2014	6	0	7
12	Gladiator	6	−2	7
13	USD Palmese	6	−3	7
14	Nardò	6	−6	5
15	Melfi	6	−4	4
16	Fidelis Andria	6	−5	4
17	Francavilla	6	−4	3
18	Ischia	6	−5	2