Venafro v Paganese prediction · Serie D - Girone G

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Venafro 1–0 Paganese PAGANESE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paganese win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.796

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Paganese win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Paganese 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 28–28–44
1′KICK-OFF Venafro v Paganese
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Paganese win 35%)
45′Venafro find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–24–10
45′We said Paganese at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 65–24–10
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 65–24–10
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+7' Venafro 1–0 Paganese
45′HALF-TIME Venafro 1–0 Paganese
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Paganese win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Venafro win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 24%)
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Paganese win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
46′SECOND HALF Venafro 1–0 Paganese
49′We said Paganese at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
52′We said Paganese at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 22–46–32 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
66′We said Paganese at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Paganese win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Venafro 1–0 Paganese
FTVenafro 1–0 Paganese · Paganese win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Paganese are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Venafro 28%, draw 28%, Paganese 44%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Venafro v PaganeseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Venafro win28%

Draw28%

Paganese win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup G · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Venafro

Paganese

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Paganese	7	+8	13
17	Venafro	7	−6	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paganese winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Paganese a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Venafro v Paganese~~1.06 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 13~~17 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Venafro win	28%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Paganese win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Venafro or draw	56%	–	–
Venafro clean sheet	25%	–	–
Paganese clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.5 11.2 8.4 4.0 1 8.3 13.1 8.7 4.1 2 4.8 6.6 4.6 2.2 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Venafro down, Paganese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,600 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Venafro at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Paganese away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Venafro, 1.41 for Paganese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 Sept

VENAFRO

DLLLWD1–1 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

PAGANESE

WDWLLW3–2 · 0–0 · 6–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	7	+6	17
2	Monastir	7	+9	16
3	Paganese	7	+8	13
4	Certosa V. Campagnano	7	+6	13
5	Unipomezia	7	+5	12
6	Ossese	7	+4	12
7	Anzio	7	+2	11
8	Trastevere	7	−4	11
9	Afragolese	8	+2	10
10	Città di Anagni	7	−1	10
11	Aranova	7	+1	9
12	Albalonga	7	0	9
13	Gelbison	7	−4	7
14	Budoni	7	−6	7
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	7	−3	6
16	Latte Dolce	7	−5	5
17	Venafro	7	−6	5
18	Atletico Lodigiani	8	−14	1