Unipomezia v Aranova prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Unipomezia 3–4 Aranova UNIPOMEZIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Unipomezia win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Unipomezia win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Unipomezia was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–27
1′KICK-OFF Unipomezia v Aranova
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Unipomezia win 36%)
46′Aranova score on 45′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
46′We said Unipomezia at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
46′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Unipomezia win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+13' Unipomezia 0–4 Aranova
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Unipomezia 0–4 Aranova
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Unipomezia win: 44% at kick-off, under 1% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Aranova win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Draw under 1%)
52′We said Unipomezia at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–46–22
55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–48–21
FTFULL TIME Unipomezia 3–4 Aranova
FTUnipomezia 3–4 Aranova · Unipomezia win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unipomezia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unipomezia 44%, draw 28%, Aranova 27%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Unipomezia v AranovaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Unipomezia win44%

Draw28%

Aranova win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup G · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unipomezia

Aranova

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Unipomezia	7	+5	12
11	Aranova	7	+1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unipomezia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Unipomezia a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unipomezia v Aranova~~1.41 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 9~~5 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unipomezia win	44%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Aranova win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Unipomezia or draw	73%	–	–
Unipomezia clean sheet	36%	–	–
Aranova clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.7 8.4 4.7 1 11.5 13.1 6.4 2.3 2 8.5 8.6 4.5 3 4.0 4.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unipomezia down, Aranova across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,600 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Unipomezia at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Aranova away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Unipomezia, 1.04 for Aranova. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 Sept

UNIPOMEZIA

DWWDWD1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–0

ARANOVA

DWLDLW2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	7	+6	17
2	Monastir	7	+9	16
3	Paganese	7	+8	13
4	Certosa V. Campagnano	7	+6	13
5	Unipomezia	7	+5	12
6	Ossese	7	+4	12
7	Anzio	7	+2	11
8	Trastevere	7	−4	11
9	Afragolese	8	+2	10
10	Città di Anagni	7	−1	10
11	Aranova	7	+1	9
12	Albalonga	7	0	9
13	Gelbison	7	−4	7
14	Budoni	7	−6	7
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	7	−3	6
16	Latte Dolce	7	−5	5
17	Venafro	7	−6	5
18	Atletico Lodigiani	8	−14	1