Trastevere v Sarrabus Ogliastra

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Trastevere win at 50%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Trastevere 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
3. 1′KICK-OFF Trastevere v Sarrabus Ogliastra
4. 41′A goal for Trastevere on 41′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
5. 41′We said Trastevere at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
6. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Trastevere 1–0 Sarrabus Ogliastra
7. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Trastevere win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
8. 45′HALF-TIME Trastevere 1–0 Sarrabus Ogliastra
9. 46′SECOND HALF Trastevere 1–0 Sarrabus Ogliastra
10. 50′Trastevere are down to ten from 50′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 77–17–6
11. 50′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Trastevere
12. 51′Sarrabus Ogliastra score on 51′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 38–39–23
13. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Trastevere 1–1 Sarrabus Ogliastra
14. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Trastevere win: 50% at kick-off, 38% now
15. 52′We said Trastevere at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–40–23
16. 52′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 38–40–23
17. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Trastevere win 36%)
18. 57′Sarrabus Ogliastra find the net on 57′. 1–2. 1–2 · 10–25–65
19. 57′We said Trastevere at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–25–65
20. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Trastevere 1–2 Sarrabus Ogliastra
21. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Trastevere win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
22. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Sarrabus Ogliastra win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 25%)
23. 59′We said Trastevere at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
24. 61′A goal for Trastevere on 60′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 33–47–20
25. 61′We said Trastevere at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 2–2 · 33–47–20
26. 61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Trastevere 2–2 Sarrabus Ogliastra
27. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Trastevere win: 50% at kick-off, 33% now
28. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Sarrabus Ogliastra win 20%)
29. 62′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 32–47–20
30. 67′We said Trastevere at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–53–18
31. 73′We said Trastevere at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–61–15
32. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Trastevere win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
33. 78′We said Trastevere at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–69–12
34. 80′Trastevere score on 79′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 89–10–1
35. 80′We said Trastevere at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 3–2 · 89–10–1
36. 80′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 89–10–1
37. 80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Trastevere 3–2 Sarrabus Ogliastra
38. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Trastevere win: 50% at kick-off, 89% now
39. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Trastevere win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
40. 81′We said Trastevere at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–2 · 90–9–1
41. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Trastevere win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
42. 88′We said Trastevere at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
43. FTFULL TIME Trastevere 3–2 Sarrabus Ogliastra
44. FTTrastevere 3–2 Sarrabus Ogliastra · Trastevere win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.