Sarrabus Ogliastra v Afragolese prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Sarrabus Ogliastra 0–0 Afragolese SARRABUS OGLIASTRA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sarrabus Ogliastra win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 2 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sarrabus Ogliastra win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Sarrabus Ogliastra v Afragolese
2′Much as we predicted: Sarrabus Ogliastra was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–26–37
4′Much as we predicted: Sarrabus Ogliastra was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–37
FTFULL TIME Sarrabus Ogliastra 0–0 Afragolese
FTSarrabus Ogliastra 0–0 Afragolese · Sarrabus Ogliastra win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sarrabus Ogliastra win37%

Draw27%

Afragolese win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sarrabus Ogliastra

Afragolese

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Afragolese	6	−2	6
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	6	−3	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarrabus ogliastra winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Sarrabus Ogliastra a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarrabus Ogliastra win	37%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Afragolese win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Sarrabus Ogliastra or draw	64%	–	–
Sarrabus Ogliastra clean sheet	27%	–	–
Afragolese clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.6 8.6 6.1 2.8 1 8.7 12.6 8.0 3.6 2 6.2 8.1 5.4 2.5 3 2.8 3.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarrabus Ogliastra down, Afragolese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sarrabus Ogliastra at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Afragolese away: 0.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Sarrabus Ogliastra, 1.35 for Afragolese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G

SARRABUS OGLIASTRA

LWLDDL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

AFRAGOLESE

DDDWLL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 0–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	6	+5	14
2	Monastir	6	+8	13
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	6	+6	12
4	Unipomezia	6	+5	11
5	Ossese	6	+4	11
6	Trastevere	6	−2	11
7	Paganese	6	+5	10
8	Anzio	6	+2	10
9	Albalonga	6	0	8
10	Gelbison	6	−2	7
11	Budoni	6	−3	7
12	Città di Anagni	6	−3	7
13	Aranova	6	−1	6
14	Afragolese	6	−2	6
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	6	−3	5
16	Latte Dolce	6	−4	5
17	Venafro	6	−6	4
18	Atletico Lodigiani	6	−9	1