Sarnese v Città di Anagni prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Sarnese 1–0 Città di Anagni SARNESE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sarnese win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.356

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sarnese win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sarnese was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
1′KICK-OFF Sarnese v Città di Anagni
21′A red card for Città di Anagni on 21′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 47–29–23
21′🟥 RED CARD · 21' Città di Anagni
24′PENALTY MISSED · 23' Sarnese
34′Sarnese find the net on 34′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–6
34′We published Sarnese at 51%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–6
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Sarnese 1–0 Città di Anagni
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Sarnese win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
35′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–6
45′HALF-TIME Sarnese 1–0 Città di Anagni
46′SECOND HALF Sarnese 1–0 Città di Anagni
53′We published Sarnese at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
55′A goal for Città di Anagni on 55′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–44–20
55′We said Sarnese at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–44–20
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Sarnese 1–1 Città di Anagni
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Sarnese win: 51% at kick-off, 36% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Sarnese win 36%)
57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 57' Città di Anagni
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Sarnese win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Sarnese win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 16%)
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Sarnese win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
70′We published Sarnese at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
79′We published Sarnese at 51%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Sarnese win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
86′We published Sarnese at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Sarnese 1–0 Città di Anagni
FTSarnese 1–0 Città di Anagni · Sarnese win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sarnese are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarnese 51%, draw 25%, Città di Anagni 24%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Sarnese v Città di AnagniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sarnese win51%

Draw25%

Città di Anagni win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup G · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarnese

Città di Anagni

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarnese winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Sarnese a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sarnese v Città di Anagni~~1.71 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 10~~1 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarnese win	51%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Città di Anagni win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Sarnese or draw	76%	–	–
Sarnese clean sheet	34%	–	–
Città di Anagni clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.0 6.1 3.6 1 9.9 11.8 6.0 2.2 2 8.9 9.4 5.1 3 5.1 5.4 2.9 4 2.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarnese down, Città di Anagni across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,600 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Sarnese at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Città di Anagni away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Sarnese, 1.08 for Città di Anagni. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 Sept

SARNESE

DWWDWW1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

CITTÀ DI ANAGNI

LLWWDW1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	7	+6	17
2	Monastir	7	+9	16
3	Paganese	7	+8	13
4	Certosa V. Campagnano	7	+6	13
5	Unipomezia	7	+5	12
6	Ossese	7	+4	12
7	Anzio	7	+2	11
8	Trastevere	7	−4	11
9	Afragolese	8	+2	10
10	Città di Anagni	7	−1	10
11	Aranova	7	+1	9
12	Albalonga	7	0	9
13	Gelbison	7	−4	7
14	Budoni	7	−6	7
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	7	−3	6
16	Latte Dolce	7	−5	5
17	Venafro	7	−6	5
18	Atletico Lodigiani	8	−14	1