Paganese v Budoni prediction · Serie D - Girone G

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Paganese 3–0 Budoni PAGANESE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paganese win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.335

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Paganese win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Paganese 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
1′KICK-OFF Paganese v Budoni
6′Little has changed for our model: Paganese 53% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–27–21
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Paganese 1–0 Budoni
22′15′ and it is 0–0: Paganese have scored. 0–0 · 48–31–20
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Paganese 1–0 Budoni
38′37′ and it is 1–0: Paganese have scored. 1–0 · 81–15–4
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Paganese win: 53% at kick-off, 81% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Paganese win: 53% at kick-off, 48% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Paganese win: 53% at kick-off, 48% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Paganese win: 53% at kick-off, 81% now
40′37′ and it is 1–0: Paganese have scored. 1–0 · 81–15–4
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Paganese win: 53% at kick-off, 48% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Paganese win: 53% at kick-off, 81% now
45′HALF-TIME Paganese 1–0 Budoni
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Paganese win: 53% at kick-off, 81% now
46′SECOND HALF Paganese 1–0 Budoni
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Paganese 2–0 Budoni
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Paganese 3–0 Budoni
FTFULL TIME Paganese 3–0 Budoni
FTPaganese 3–0 Budoni · Paganese win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Paganese win53%

Draw27%

Budoni win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadio Marcello Torre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Paganese

Budoni

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Paganese	6	+5	10
11	Budoni	6	−3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paganese winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Paganese a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paganese win	53%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Budoni win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Paganese or draw	80%	–	–
Paganese clean sheet	44%	–	–
Budoni clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 10.2 7.3 3.3 1 13.8 12.4 5.0 2 10.9 9.0 3.8 3 5.6 4.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paganese down, Budoni across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Paganese at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Budoni away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Paganese, 0.84 for Budoni. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G

PAGANESE

WWDWLL2–1 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 6–1 · 2–3 · 1–2

BUDONI

LDLWWL1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	6	+5	14
2	Monastir	6	+8	13
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	6	+6	12
4	Unipomezia	6	+5	11
5	Ossese	6	+4	11
6	Trastevere	6	−2	11
7	Paganese	6	+5	10
8	Anzio	6	+2	10
9	Albalonga	6	0	8
10	Gelbison	6	−2	7
11	Budoni	6	−3	7
12	Città di Anagni	6	−3	7
13	Aranova	6	−1	6
14	Afragolese	6	−2	6
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	6	−3	5
16	Latte Dolce	6	−4	5
17	Venafro	6	−6	4
18	Atletico Lodigiani	6	−9	1