Ossese v Venafro prediction · Serie D - Girone G

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Ossese 1–1 Venafro OSSESE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ossese win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.842

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ossese win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ossese was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
1′KICK-OFF Ossese v Venafro
6′Much as we predicted: Ossese was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Ossese 0–1 Venafro
22′A goal for Venafro on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–26–54
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Ossese win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Venafro win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Ossese win 20%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Ossese win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Ossese win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Venafro win 24%)
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Ossese 1–1 Venafro
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Ossese win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Venafro win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Ossese win 20%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Ossese win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Ossese win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Venafro win 24%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Ossese win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Ossese win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Venafro win 24%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Ossese win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Venafro win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Ossese win 20%)
38′23′ and it is 1–1: Ossese have scored. 1–1 · 41–37–22
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Ossese win: 50% at kick-off, 41% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Ossese win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Ossese win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Ossese win: 50% at kick-off, 41% now
40′23′ and it is 1–1: Ossese have scored. 1–1 · 41–38–22
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Ossese win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Ossese win: 50% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Ossese 1–1 Venafro
46′SECOND HALF Ossese 1–1 Venafro
FTFULL TIME Ossese 1–1 Venafro
FTOssese 1–1 Venafro · Ossese win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ossese win50%

Draw27%

Venafro win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ossese

Venafro

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Ossese	6	+4	11
17	Venafro	6	−6	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ossese winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Ossese a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ossese win	50%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Venafro win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Ossese or draw	77%	–	–
Ossese clean sheet	38%	–	–
Venafro clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 9.0 7.4 3.9 1 12.0 12.4 5.8 2 9.5 9.0 4.4 3 5.0 4.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ossese down, Venafro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ossese at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Venafro away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Ossese, 0.97 for Venafro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G

OSSESE

WWDLDW3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–0

VENAFRO

LDLLLW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	6	+5	14
2	Monastir	6	+8	13
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	6	+6	12
4	Unipomezia	6	+5	11
5	Ossese	6	+4	11
6	Trastevere	6	−2	11
7	Paganese	6	+5	10
8	Anzio	6	+2	10
9	Albalonga	6	0	8
10	Gelbison	6	−2	7
11	Budoni	6	−3	7
12	Città di Anagni	6	−3	7
13	Aranova	6	−1	6
14	Afragolese	6	−2	6
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	6	−3	5
16	Latte Dolce	6	−4	5
17	Venafro	6	−6	4
18	Atletico Lodigiani	6	−9	1