Monastir v Latte Dolce prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Monastir 2–1 Latte Dolce MONASTIR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monastir win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.307

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Monastir win at 55%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Monastir 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
4′Little has changed for our model: Monastir 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
23′A goal for Monastir on 13′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 55% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 92% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 55% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 55% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 92% now
27′A goal for Monastir on 13′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 92% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 55% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Monastir 2–1 Latte Dolce
39′38′ and it is 2–1: Latte Dolce have scored. 2–1 · 78–16–6
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Monastir win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME Monastir 2–1 Latte Dolce
46′SECOND HALF Monastir 2–1 Latte Dolce
FTFULL TIME Monastir 2–1 Latte Dolce
FTMonastir 2–1 Latte Dolce · Monastir win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Monastir win55%

Draw23%

Latte Dolce win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Monastir

Latte Dolce

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Monastir	6	+8	13
16	Latte Dolce	6	−4	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · monastir winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Monastir a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monastir win	55%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Latte Dolce win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Monastir or draw	77%	–	–
Monastir clean sheet	30%	–	–
Latte Dolce clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.7 4.5 3.0 1 7.7 10.2 5.9 2.4 2 8.0 9.6 5.8 2.4 3 5.3 6.4 3.8 4 2.7 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monastir down, Latte Dolce across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monastir at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Latte Dolce away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Monastir, 1.21 for Latte Dolce. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MON 3–2 LAT · LAT 1–2 MON

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G

MONASTIR

WWLWDW2–1 · 5–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 5–1

LATTE DOLCE

LLDLDW0–3 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	6	+5	14
2	Monastir	6	+8	13
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	6	+6	12
4	Unipomezia	6	+5	11
5	Ossese	6	+4	11
6	Trastevere	6	−2	11
7	Paganese	6	+5	10
8	Anzio	6	+2	10
9	Albalonga	6	0	8
10	Gelbison	6	−2	7
11	Budoni	6	−3	7
12	Città di Anagni	6	−3	7
13	Aranova	6	−1	6
14	Afragolese	6	−2	6
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	6	−3	5
16	Latte Dolce	6	−4	5
17	Venafro	6	−6	4
18	Atletico Lodigiani	6	−9	1