Gelbison v Ossese prediction · Serie D - Girone G

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Gelbison 2–1 Ossese GELBISON WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gelbison win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.528

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gelbison win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gelbison was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Gelbison v Ossese
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Gelbison win 34%)
45′Gelbison score on 45′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′We published Gelbison at 41%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′38′: S. Simeri on the scoresheet for Gelbison, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Gelbison 2–0 Ossese
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Gelbison win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Gelbison win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 6%)
45′HALF-TIME Gelbison 2–0 Ossese
46′SECOND HALF Gelbison 2–0 Ossese
54′We published Gelbison at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
55′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
68′Ossese find the net on 68′. 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
68′We published Gelbison at 41%. Our model now makes it 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–3
68′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 81–16–3
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Gelbison 2–1 Ossese
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Gelbison win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
75′We published Gelbison at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Gelbison win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
FTFULL TIME Gelbison 2–1 Ossese
FTGelbison 2–1 Ossese · Gelbison win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gelbison are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gelbison 41%, draw 27%, Ossese 32%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Gelbison v OsseseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gelbison win41%

Draw27%

Ossese win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup G · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gelbison

Ossese

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ossese	7	+4	12
13	Gelbison	7	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gelbison winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Gelbison a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gelbison v Ossese~~1.42 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 12~~13 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gelbison win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Ossese win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Gelbison or draw	68%	–	–
Gelbison clean sheet	30%	–	–
Ossese clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.2 8.2 5.4 2.2 1 9.5 12.9 7.4 3.0 2 7.1 8.5 5.2 2.1 3 3.4 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gelbison down, Ossese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,600 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Gelbison at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ossese away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Gelbison, 1.22 for Ossese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 Sept

GELBISON

LWLWLL1–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–3

OSSESE

WDLDWD1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	7	+6	17
2	Monastir	7	+9	16
3	Paganese	7	+8	13
4	Certosa V. Campagnano	7	+6	13
5	Unipomezia	7	+5	12
6	Ossese	7	+4	12
7	Anzio	7	+2	11
8	Trastevere	7	−4	11
9	Afragolese	8	+2	10
10	Città di Anagni	7	−1	10
11	Aranova	7	+1	9
12	Albalonga	7	0	9
13	Gelbison	7	−4	7
14	Budoni	7	−6	7
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	7	−3	6
16	Latte Dolce	7	−5	5
17	Venafro	7	−6	5
18	Atletico Lodigiani	8	−14	1