Città di Anagni v Gelbison prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Città di Anagni 3–1 Gelbison GELBISON WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gelbison win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.628

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gelbison win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gelbison was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
1′KICK-OFF Città di Anagni v Gelbison
2′Much as we predicted: Gelbison was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Città di Anagni 1–0 Gelbison
22′14′ and it is 1–0: Città di Anagni have scored. 1–0 · 64–22–14
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Gelbison win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Città di Anagni win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Gelbison win 14%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Gelbison win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Gelbison win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Gelbison win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
24′14′ and it is 1–0: Città di Anagni have scored. 1–0 · 65–22–14
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Gelbison win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Gelbison win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Città di Anagni 2–0 Gelbison
40′Città di Anagni find the net on 38′. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–8–2
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Gelbison win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Gelbison win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Gelbison win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Gelbison win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
42′Città di Anagni find the net on 38′. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–8–2
45′HALF-TIME Città di Anagni 2–0 Gelbison
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gelbison win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Città di Anagni win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Gelbison win 2%)
46′SECOND HALF Città di Anagni 2–0 Gelbison
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Città di Anagni 3–0 Gelbison
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Città di Anagni 3–1 Gelbison
FTFULL TIME Città di Anagni 3–1 Gelbison
FTCittà di Anagni 3–1 Gelbison · Gelbison win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Città di Anagni win36%

Draw27%

Gelbison win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Città di Anagni

Gelbison

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Gelbison	6	−2	7
12	Città di Anagni	6	−3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gelbison winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Gelbison a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Città di Anagni win	36%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Gelbison win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Città di Anagni or draw	62%	–	–
Città di Anagni clean sheet	26%	–	–
Gelbison clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.5 8.7 6.3 2.9 1 8.4 12.5 8.2 3.8 2 5.9 7.9 5.4 2.5 3 2.7 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Città di Anagni down, Gelbison across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Città di Anagni at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 3). Gelbison away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Città di Anagni, 1.38 for Gelbison. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G

CITTÀ DI ANAGNI

LLLWWD0–4 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 0–0

GELBISON

DLWLWL0–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	6	+5	14
2	Monastir	6	+8	13
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	6	+6	12
4	Unipomezia	6	+5	11
5	Ossese	6	+4	11
6	Trastevere	6	−2	11
7	Paganese	6	+5	10
8	Anzio	6	+2	10
9	Albalonga	6	0	8
10	Gelbison	6	−2	7
11	Budoni	6	−3	7
12	Città di Anagni	6	−3	7
13	Aranova	6	−1	6
14	Afragolese	6	−2	6
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	6	−3	5
16	Latte Dolce	6	−4	5
17	Venafro	6	−6	4
18	Atletico Lodigiani	6	−9	1