Certosa V. Campagnano v Monastir prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Certosa V. Campagnano 3–2 Monastir CERTOSA V. CAMPAGNANO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Certosa V. Campagnano win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.509

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Certosa V. Campagnano win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Certosa V. Campagnano 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Certosa V. Campagnano v Monastir
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Certosa V. Campagnano win 34%)
45′We said Certosa V. Campagnano at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–7
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 73–20–7
45′Certosa V. Campagnano ahead on 35′ through F. Umbaca. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–7
45′HALF-TIME Certosa V. Campagnano 1–0 Monastir
46′SECOND HALF Certosa V. Campagnano 1–0 Monastir
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Certosa V. Campagnano win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Certosa V. Campagnano 3–2 Monastir
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+5' Certosa V. Campagnano win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
52′Certosa V. Campagnano find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
52′We said Certosa V. Campagnano at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
52′⚽ GOAL · 45+6' Certosa V. Campagnano 1–0 Monastir
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+7' Certosa V. Campagnano win: 42% at kick-off, 75% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+7' Certosa V. Campagnano win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
66′We said Certosa V. Campagnano at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Certosa V. Campagnano win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
75′We said Certosa V. Campagnano at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
81′We said Certosa V. Campagnano at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Certosa V. Campagnano win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
88′We said Certosa V. Campagnano at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Certosa V. Campagnano 3–2 Monastir
FTCertosa V. Campagnano 3–2 Monastir · Certosa V. Campagnano win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Certosa V. Campagnano are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Certosa V. Campagnano 42%, draw 27%, Monastir 31%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Certosa V. Campagnano v MonastirBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Certosa V. Campagnano win42%

Draw27%

Monastir win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup G · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Certosa V. Campagnano

Monastir

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Monastir	7	+9	16
4	Certosa V. Campagnano	7	+6	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · certosa v. campagnano winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Certosa V. Campagnano a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Certosa V. Campagnano v Monastir~~1.48 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 16~~4 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Certosa V. Campagnano win	42%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Monastir win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Certosa V. Campagnano or draw	69%	–	–
Certosa V. Campagnano clean sheet	29%	–	–
Monastir clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.5 7.5 5.1 2.2 1 9.0 12.6 7.4 3.1 2 7.1 8.7 5.4 2.3 3 3.5 4.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Certosa V. Campagnano down, Monastir across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,600 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Certosa V. Campagnano at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Monastir away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Certosa V. Campagnano, 1.25 for Monastir. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 Sept

CERTOSA V. CAMPAGNANO

LWWLWD0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

MONASTIR

WLWDWW5–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	7	+6	17
2	Monastir	7	+9	16
3	Paganese	7	+8	13
4	Certosa V. Campagnano	7	+6	13
5	Unipomezia	7	+5	12
6	Ossese	7	+4	12
7	Anzio	7	+2	11
8	Trastevere	7	−4	11
9	Afragolese	8	+2	10
10	Città di Anagni	7	−1	10
11	Aranova	7	+1	9
12	Albalonga	7	0	9
13	Gelbison	7	−4	7
14	Budoni	7	−6	7
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	7	−3	6
16	Latte Dolce	7	−5	5
17	Venafro	7	−6	5
18	Atletico Lodigiani	8	−14	1