Budoni v Albalonga prediction · Serie D - Girone G

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Budoni 2–4 Albalonga BUDONI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Budoni win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.641

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Budoni win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Budoni was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–35
1′KICK-OFF Budoni v Albalonga
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Budoni win 32%)
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 27–47–26
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+10' Budoni win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
60′We said Budoni at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 25–51–24
62′We said Budoni at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–23
FTFULL TIME Budoni 2–4 Albalonga
FTBudoni 2–4 Albalonga · Budoni win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Budoni just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Budoni 37%, draw 28%, Albalonga 35%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Budoni v AlbalongaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Budoni win37%

Draw28%

Albalonga win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup G · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Budoni

Albalonga

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Albalonga	7	0	9
14	Budoni	7	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · budoni winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Budoni a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Budoni v Albalonga~~1.32 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~14 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Budoni win	37%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Albalonga win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Budoni or draw	65%	–	–
Budoni clean sheet	29%	–	–
Albalonga clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.5 8.9 6.1 2.6 1 9.3 13.2 7.8 3.3 2 6.6 8.2 5.1 2.2 3 2.9 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Budoni down, Albalonga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,600 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Budoni at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Albalonga away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Budoni, 1.26 for Albalonga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALB 3–0 BUD · BUD 1–1 ALB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 Sept

BUDONI

DLWWLL2–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–5 · 0–3

ALBALONGA

WLDDLD3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	7	+6	17
2	Monastir	7	+9	16
3	Paganese	7	+8	13
4	Certosa V. Campagnano	7	+6	13
5	Unipomezia	7	+5	12
6	Ossese	7	+4	12
7	Anzio	7	+2	11
8	Trastevere	7	−4	11
9	Afragolese	8	+2	10
10	Città di Anagni	7	−1	10
11	Aranova	7	+1	9
12	Albalonga	7	0	9
13	Gelbison	7	−4	7
14	Budoni	7	−6	7
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	7	−3	6
16	Latte Dolce	7	−5	5
17	Venafro	7	−6	5
18	Atletico Lodigiani	8	−14	1