Atletico Lodigiani v Venafro prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atletico LodigianiDrawVenafro

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Atletico Lodigiani 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Atletico Lodigiani just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Lodigiani 38%, draw 28%, Venafro 34%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Lodigiani v VenafroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Lodigiani win38%

Draw28%

Venafro win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup G · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Lodigiani

Venafro

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Venafro	8	−5	8
18	Atletico Lodigiani	8	−14	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico lodigiani winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Atletico Lodigiani a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Lodigiani v Venafro~~1.30 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 1 v 8~~18 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Lodigiani win	38%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Venafro win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Atletico Lodigiani or draw	66%	–	–
Atletico Lodigiani clean sheet	30%	–	–
Venafro clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.1 9.2 6.0 2.4 1 10.0 13.3 7.6 3.1 2 6.9 8.1 4.9 3 3.0 3.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Lodigiani down, Venafro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,609 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Atletico Lodigiani at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Venafro away: 0.75 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Atletico Lodigiani, 1.21 for Venafro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 16 Sept

ATLETICO LODIGIANI

DLLLLL2–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–4

VENAFRO

LLLWDW0–1 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	8	+7	20
2	Monastir	9	+8	17
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	8	+7	16
4	Trastevere	9	−3	15
5	Paganese	8	+7	13
6	Unipomezia	8	+4	12
7	Ossese	8	+3	12
8	Albalonga	8	+2	12
9	Aranova	8	+2	12
10	Anzio	8	+2	12
11	Afragolese	8	+2	10
12	Città di Anagni	8	−2	10
13	Gelbison	8	−3	10
14	Venafro	8	−5	8
15	Budoni	8	−8	7
16	Sarrabus Ogliastra	8	−4	6
17	Latte Dolce	8	−5	6
18	Atletico Lodigiani	8	−14	1