Atletico Lodigiani v Sarnese prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Atletico Lodigiani 0–1 Sarnese SARNESE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sarnese win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.466

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sarnese win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Atletico Lodigiani v Sarnese
2′Little has changed for our model: Sarnese 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 30–25–45
4′Little has changed for our model: Sarnese 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 30–26–44
45′HALF-TIME Atletico Lodigiani 0–0 Sarnese
46′SECOND HALF Atletico Lodigiani 0–0 Sarnese
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Atletico Lodigiani 0–1 Sarnese
FTFULL TIME Atletico Lodigiani 0–1 Sarnese
FTAtletico Lodigiani 0–1 Sarnese · Sarnese win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atletico Lodigiani win30%

Draw26%

Sarnese win44%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atletico Lodigiani

Sarnese

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	6	+5	14
18	Atletico Lodigiani	6	−9	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarnese winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Sarnese a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Lodigiani win	30%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Sarnese win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Atletico Lodigiani or draw	56%	–	–
Atletico Lodigiani clean sheet	22%	–	–
Sarnese clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.0 9.2 7.5 3.9 1 7.2 12.3 9.0 4.7 2 4.7 7.1 5.5 2.9 3 2.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Lodigiani down, Sarnese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Lodigiani at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sarnese away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Atletico Lodigiani, 1.55 for Sarnese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–1 SAR · SAR 4–0 ATL

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G

ATLETICO LODIGIANI

LLDLLL2–3 · 1–5 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–3

SARNESE

WDWWDW2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	6	+5	14
2	Monastir	6	+8	13
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	6	+6	12
4	Unipomezia	6	+5	11
5	Ossese	6	+4	11
6	Trastevere	6	−2	11
7	Paganese	6	+5	10
8	Anzio	6	+2	10
9	Albalonga	6	0	8
10	Gelbison	6	−2	7
11	Budoni	6	−3	7
12	Città di Anagni	6	−3	7
13	Aranova	6	−1	6
14	Afragolese	6	−2	6
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	6	−3	5
16	Latte Dolce	6	−4	5
17	Venafro	6	−6	4
18	Atletico Lodigiani	6	−9	1