Aranova v Trastevere prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Aranova 2–0 Trastevere ARANOVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aranova win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.540

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aranova win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Aranova v Trastevere
3′Much as we predicted: Aranova was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
4′Much as we predicted: Aranova was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
26′🟥 RED CARD · 26' Trastevere
42′A red card for Trastevere on 26′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 34–37–29
44′A red card for Trastevere on 26′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 33–37–29
45′HALF-TIME Aranova 0–0 Trastevere
46′SECOND HALF Aranova 0–0 Trastevere
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Aranova 1–0 Trastevere
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Aranova 2–0 Trastevere
FTFULL TIME Aranova 2–0 Trastevere
FTAranova 2–0 Trastevere · Aranova win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Aranova win40%

Draw26%

Trastevere win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Aranova

Trastevere

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Trastevere	6	−2	11
13	Aranova	6	−1	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aranova winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Aranova a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aranova win	40%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Trastevere win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Aranova or draw	66%	–	–
Aranova clean sheet	26%	–	–
Trastevere clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.7 7.5 5.4 2.4 1 8.3 12.2 7.8 3.5 2 6.5 8.6 5.7 2.6 3 3.3 4.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aranova down, Trastevere across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Aranova at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Trastevere away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Aranova, 1.34 for Trastevere. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G

ARANOVA

DDWLDL0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

TRASTEVERE

WWDLWD1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–6 · 3–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	6	+5	14
2	Monastir	6	+8	13
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	6	+6	12
4	Unipomezia	6	+5	11
5	Ossese	6	+4	11
6	Trastevere	6	−2	11
7	Paganese	6	+5	10
8	Anzio	6	+2	10
9	Albalonga	6	0	8
10	Gelbison	6	−2	7
11	Budoni	6	−3	7
12	Città di Anagni	6	−3	7
13	Aranova	6	−1	6
14	Afragolese	6	−2	6
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	6	−3	5
16	Latte Dolce	6	−4	5
17	Venafro	6	−6	4
18	Atletico Lodigiani	6	−9	1