Aranova v Sarnese prediction · Serie D - Girone G

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AranovaDrawSarnese

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sarnese 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sarnese just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Aranova 35%, draw 28%, Sarnese 37%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Aranova v SarneseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Aranova win35%

Draw28%

Sarnese win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup G · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aranova

Sarnese

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarnese winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Sarnese a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aranova v Sarnese~~1.28 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 20~~9 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aranova win	35%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Sarnese win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Aranova or draw	63%	–	–
Aranova clean sheet	27%	–	–
Sarnese clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.2 9.1 6.5 2.9 1 8.8 12.9 8.1 3.7 2 6.0 7.8 5.2 2.3 3 2.6 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aranova down, Sarnese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,609 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Aranova at home: 1.00 scored, 0.25 conceded a game (last 4). Sarnese away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Aranova, 1.34 for Sarnese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 16 Sept

ARANOVA

WLDLWW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 4–3

SARNESE

WWDWWW1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	8	+7	20
2	Monastir	8	+8	16
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	8	+7	16
4	Trastevere	8	−3	14
5	Paganese	8	+7	13
6	Unipomezia	8	+4	12
7	Ossese	8	+3	12
8	Albalonga	8	+2	12
9	Aranova	8	+2	12
10	Anzio	8	+2	12
11	Afragolese	8	+2	10
12	Città di Anagni	8	−2	10
13	Gelbison	8	−3	10
14	Venafro	8	−5	8
15	Budoni	8	−8	7
16	Sarrabus Ogliastra	8	−4	6
17	Latte Dolce	8	−5	6
18	Atletico Lodigiani	8	−14	1