Anzio v Afragolese prediction · Serie D - Girone G

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AnzioDrawAfragolese

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Afragolese 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Afragolese are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Anzio 33%, draw 29%, Afragolese 38%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Anzio v AfragoleseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Anzio win33%

Draw29%

Afragolese win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup G · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Anzio

Afragolese

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Anzio	8	+2	12
11	Afragolese	8	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afragolese winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make Afragolese a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Anzio v Afragolese~~1.17 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~10 v 11

~~The market · Afragolese win~~36% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Afragolese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Anzio win	33%	34%	−1
Draw	29%	31%	−2
Afragolese win	38%	36%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	44%	0
Both teams to score	50%	49%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	68%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	25%	−2
Anzio or draw	62%	64%	−2
Anzio clean sheet	29%	–	–
Afragolese clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.8 10.5 7.0 3.0 1 9.6 13.4 8.0 3.4 2 6.0 7.4 4.7 3 2.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Anzio down, Afragolese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,609 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Anzio at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Afragolese away: 0.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Anzio, 1.27 for Afragolese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 16 Sept

ANZIO

WLWWDD3–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

AFRAGOLESE

DWLLDW0–0 · 4–0 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	8	+7	20
2	Monastir	9	+8	17
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	8	+7	16
4	Trastevere	9	−3	15
5	Paganese	8	+7	13
6	Unipomezia	8	+4	12
7	Ossese	8	+3	12
8	Albalonga	8	+2	12
9	Aranova	8	+2	12
10	Anzio	8	+2	12
11	Afragolese	8	+2	10
12	Città di Anagni	8	−2	10
13	Gelbison	8	−3	10
14	Venafro	8	−5	8
15	Budoni	8	−8	7
16	Sarrabus Ogliastra	8	−4	6
17	Latte Dolce	8	−5	6
18	Atletico Lodigiani	8	−14	1