Albalonga v Unipomezia prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AlbalongaDrawUnipomezia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Albalonga 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Albalonga just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Albalonga 39%, draw 25%, Unipomezia 36%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Albalonga v UnipomeziaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Albalonga win39%

Draw25%

Unipomezia win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup G · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Albalonga

Unipomezia

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Unipomezia	8	+4	12
8	Albalonga	8	+2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · albalonga winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Albalonga a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Albalonga v Unipomezia~~1.58 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~8 v 6

~~The market · Albalonga win~~39% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Albalonga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Albalonga win	39%	39%	0
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Unipomezia win	36%	32%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	59%	50%	+9
Both teams to score	62%	54%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	82%	73%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	37%	31%	+6
Albalonga or draw	64%	68%	−4
Albalonga clean sheet	23%	–	–
Unipomezia clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.4 6.4 5.2 2.6 1 6.7 11.3 8.0 4.0 2 5.8 8.4 6.3 3.2 3 3.1 4.5 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Albalonga down, Unipomezia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,609 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Albalonga at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Unipomezia away: 1.25 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Albalonga, 1.50 for Unipomezia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 16 Sept

ALBALONGA

LDDLDW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 4–2

UNIPOMEZIA

WWDWDL2–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	8	+7	20
2	Monastir	9	+8	17
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	8	+7	16
4	Trastevere	9	−3	15
5	Paganese	8	+7	13
6	Unipomezia	8	+4	12
7	Ossese	8	+3	12
8	Albalonga	8	+2	12
9	Aranova	8	+2	12
10	Anzio	8	+2	12
11	Afragolese	8	+2	10
12	Città di Anagni	8	−2	10
13	Gelbison	8	−3	10
14	Venafro	8	−5	8
15	Budoni	8	−8	7
16	Sarrabus Ogliastra	8	−4	6
17	Latte Dolce	8	−5	6
18	Atletico Lodigiani	8	−14	1