Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Serie D - Girone G › Afragolese v Atletico Lodigiani

Back
Italy flag

Afragolese v Atletico Lodigiani

Afragolese
4–0Full time
Atletico Lodigiani

Serie D - Girone G · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Afragolese 4–0 Atletico Lodigiani AFRAGOLESE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Afragolese win46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.442

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Afragolese win at 46%.
  2. 21′A goal for Afragolese on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
  3. 22′We said Afragolese at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
  4. 29′We said Afragolese at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
  5. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–8
  6. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Afragolese win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
  7. 45′A goal for Afragolese on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–6
  8. 45′We said Afragolese at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–6
  9. 45′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–6
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Afragolese 1–0 Atletico Lodigiani
  11. 58′Afragolese score on 46′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
  12. 58′We said Afragolese at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–0
  13. 58′⚽ GOAL · 46' Afragolese 2–0 Atletico Lodigiani
  14. 58′SECOND HALF Afragolese 2–0 Atletico Lodigiani
  15. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Afragolese win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
  16. 65′Afragolese find the net on 64′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  17. 65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Afragolese 3–0 Atletico Lodigiani
  18. 66′We said Afragolese at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 66′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  20. 97′A goal for Afragolese on 90′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 97′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Afragolese 4–0 Atletico Lodigiani
  22. FTFULL TIME Afragolese 4–0 Atletico Lodigiani
  23. FTAfragolese 4–0 Atletico Lodigiani · Afragolese win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Afragolese are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Afragolese 46%, draw 27%, Atletico Lodigiani 27%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Afragolese v Atletico LodigianiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Afragolese win46%
Draw27%
Atletico Lodigiani win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup G · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Afragolese

Atletico Lodigiani

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
12Afragolese7−27
18Atletico Lodigiani7−101

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afragolese winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
46% The market–
Us46%

We make Afragolese a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Afragolese v Atletico Lodigiani1.48 – 1.07
Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 SeptW1 D3 L2 · W0 D1 L5
Table places · points 7 v 112 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0317 OCT 13:26
Our probability · Afragolese win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Afragolese win46%––
Draw27%––
Atletico Lodigiani win27%––
Over 2.5 goals46%––
Both teams to score51%––
Over 1.5 goals72%––
Over 3.5 goals25%––
Afragolese or draw73%––
Afragolese clean sheet35%––
Atletico Lodigiani clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%
0123450 8.9 7.8 4.5 1 10.9 12.9 6.5 2.3 2 8.5 8.9 4.7 3 4.2 4.4 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Afragolese down, Atletico Lodigiani across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 12 Sept

AFRAGOLESE

DDWLLD1–1 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 0–0

ATLETICO LODIGIANI

LDLLLL1–5 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sarnese7+617
2Monastir7+916
3Paganese7+813
4Certosa V. Campagnano7+613
5Unipomezia7+512
6Ossese7+412
7Anzio7+211
8Trastevere7−411
9Città di Anagni7−110
10Aranova7+19
11Albalonga709
12Afragolese7−27
13Gelbison7−47
14Budoni7−67
15Sarrabus Ogliastra7−36
16Latte Dolce7−55
17Venafro7−65
18Atletico Lodigiani7−101

The competition's standings before kick-off.