Afragolese v Aranova prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AfragoleseDrawAranova

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Afragolese 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Afragolese are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Afragolese 42%, draw 28%, Aranova 30%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Afragolese v AranovaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Afragolese win42%

Draw28%

Aranova win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup G · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Afragolese

Aranova

14Days since last match13

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone G

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Aranova	8	+2	12
11	Afragolese	8	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afragolese winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Afragolese a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Afragolese v Aranova~~1.42 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~11 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Afragolese win	42%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Aranova win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Afragolese or draw	70%	–	–
Afragolese clean sheet	32%	–	–
Aranova clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.7 8.3 5.2 2.0 1 10.2 12.9 7.0 2.8 2 7.6 8.6 4.9 3 3.6 4.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Afragolese down, Aranova across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,609 Serie D - Girone G matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone G matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Afragolese at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Aranova away: 2.00 scored, 2.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Afragolese, 1.16 for Aranova. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone G this season · since 16 Sept

AFRAGOLESE

DWLLDW0–0 · 4–0 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 4–0

ARANOVA

WLDLWW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sarnese	8	+7	20
2	Monastir	9	+8	17
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	8	+7	16
4	Trastevere	9	−3	15
5	Paganese	8	+7	13
6	Unipomezia	8	+4	12
7	Ossese	8	+3	12
8	Albalonga	8	+2	12
9	Aranova	8	+2	12
10	Anzio	8	+2	12
11	Afragolese	8	+2	10
12	Città di Anagni	8	−2	10
13	Gelbison	8	−3	10
14	Venafro	8	−5	8
15	Budoni	8	−8	7
16	Sarrabus Ogliastra	8	−4	6
17	Latte Dolce	8	−5	6
18	Atletico Lodigiani	8	−14	1