Vigor Senigallia v Atletico Ascoli prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Vigor Senigallia 1–2 Atletico Ascoli VIGOR SENIGALLIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vigor Senigallia win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.747

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vigor Senigallia win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vigor Senigallia was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
1′KICK-OFF Vigor Senigallia v Atletico Ascoli
2′Much as we predicted: Vigor Senigallia was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–31
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Vigor Senigallia 0–1 Atletico Ascoli
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Vigor Senigallia 0–2 Atletico Ascoli
40′A goal for Atletico Ascoli on 39′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Vigor Senigallia win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Atletico Ascoli win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Vigor Senigallia win 3%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Vigor Senigallia win: 43% at kick-off, 40% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Vigor Senigallia win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Atletico Ascoli win 29%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Vigor Senigallia win: 43% at kick-off, 40% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Vigor Senigallia win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Atletico Ascoli win 29%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Vigor Senigallia win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Atletico Ascoli win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Vigor Senigallia win 3%)
42′A goal for Atletico Ascoli on 39′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
45′HALF-TIME Vigor Senigallia 0–2 Atletico Ascoli
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Vigor Senigallia win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Atletico Ascoli win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Vigor Senigallia win 3%)
46′SECOND HALF Vigor Senigallia 0–2 Atletico Ascoli
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Vigor Senigallia 1–2 Atletico Ascoli
FTFULL TIME Vigor Senigallia 1–2 Atletico Ascoli
FTVigor Senigallia 1–2 Atletico Ascoli · Vigor Senigallia win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Vigor Senigallia win43%

Draw27%

Atletico Ascoli win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Vigor Senigallia

Atletico Ascoli

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Vigor Senigallia	6	+4	13
14	Atletico Ascoli	6	−3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vigor senigallia winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Vigor Senigallia a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vigor Senigallia win	43%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Atletico Ascoli win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Vigor Senigallia or draw	70%	–	–
Vigor Senigallia clean sheet	30%	–	–
Atletico Ascoli clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.8 6.9 4.9 2.0 1 8.7 12.9 7.2 3.0 2 7.3 8.8 5.4 2.2 3 3.7 4.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vigor Senigallia down, Atletico Ascoli across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,590 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vigor Senigallia at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Ascoli away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Vigor Senigallia, 1.23 for Atletico Ascoli. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VIG 2–2 ATL · ATL 2–1 VIG · VIG 0–0 ATL · ATL 2–2 VIG

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F

VIGOR SENIGALLIA

WWWWDL5–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 4–6

ATLETICO ASCOLI

LWDWLL0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	6	+10	14
2	Teramo	6	+6	13
3	Vigor Senigallia	6	+4	13
4	Foligno Calcio	6	+1	13
5	Ancona	6	+3	11
6	Notaresco	7	+1	11
7	Fossombrone	6	−3	10
8	Montecchio Gallo	6	0	8
9	Santegidiese	6	−1	8
10	Lanciano FC	6	+1	7
11	Real Giulianova	6	+1	7
12	Termoli Calcio	6	−1	7
13	Maceratese	6	−2	7
14	Atletico Ascoli	6	−3	7
15	Recanatese	7	−2	6
16	Angelana	6	−3	4
17	Sporting Trestina	6	−5	4
18	Pietralunga	6	−7	2