Vigor Senigallia v Ancona prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Vigor SenigalliaDrawAncona

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ancona 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ancona just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Vigor Senigallia 34%, draw 28%, Ancona 38%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Vigor Senigallia v AnconaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Vigor Senigallia win34%

Draw28%

Ancona win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup F · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vigor Senigallia

Ancona

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone F

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Vigor Senigallia	8	+5	16
6	Ancona	8	+4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ancona winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 03:55 · locked at kick-off

38% The market34%

Us38%

~~Market~~34%

We make Ancona a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vigor Senigallia v Ancona~~1.30 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~3 v 6

~~The market · Ancona win~~34% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ancona win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vigor Senigallia win	34%	37%	−3
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Ancona win	38%	34%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	73%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	31%	−3
Vigor Senigallia or draw	62%	66%	−4
Vigor Senigallia clean sheet	26%	–	–
Ancona clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.2 8.6 6.6 3.0 1 8.0 13.1 8.3 3.8 2 5.8 7.8 5.3 2.5 3 2.5 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vigor Senigallia down, Ancona across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Serie D - Girone F matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone F matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vigor Senigallia at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ancona away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Vigor Senigallia, 1.38 for Ancona. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~VIG 0–1 ANC · ANC 0–0 VIG · ANC 3–1 VIG · VIG 1–0 ANC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone F this season · since 16 Sept

VIGOR SENIGALLIA

WWDLLW2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 4–6 · 1–2 · 2–0

ANCONA

WDDWWL1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	L'Aquila	8	+12	20
2	Teramo	8	+9	19
3	Vigor Senigallia	8	+5	16
4	Foligno Calcio	8	+2	16
5	Notaresco	8	+4	14
6	Ancona	8	+4	14
7	Atletico Ascoli	8	+3	13
8	Fossombrone	8	−3	13
9	Montecchio Gallo	8	0	11
10	Real Giulianova	8	0	10
11	Lanciano FC	8	−1	10
12	Termoli Calcio	8	−1	10
13	Santegidiese	8	−4	8
14	Pietralunga	8	−4	8
15	Maceratese	8	−7	7
16	Recanatese	8	−3	6
17	Angelana	8	−7	4
18	Sporting Trestina	8	−9	4